I wanted to continue learning about new Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s previous coaching stops. Today, I’m taking a dive into turnover data. The goal is to see if one of Pittsburgh’s strengths in taking care of the football should continue, or if there may be a regression in that regard in 2024.
Let’s dive right in. Here are turnovers (offense) and takeaways (defense) for NFL teams since 2019, zooming in on Pittsburgh and Smith:
Lots of valuable information to digest here. First, it’s important to note Smith’s roles in his prior coaching positions. As the offensive coordinator in Tennessee, those teams posted very respectably low turnover marks, starting with only 17 in his first season in 2019.
Then, the Titans’ 2020 campaign was particularly impressive, turning the ball over just 12 times on offense. That stellar number ranked third-best across the entire NFL in the five-year span (160 qualifying teams).
Smith’s three years as head coach of the Falcons was a different story, largely below average on both sides of the ball, with the exception being above the mean on offense in 2022. That unit posted 21 offensive turnovers, so a noticeably unfortunate difference from his time in Tennessee.
The other side of the coin was being well below average in 2021, and last season. Those numbers came in at 26, and 28 turnovers on offense in 2023, with last year’s number tying for the 21st lowest mark since 2019.
Player talent is obviously a key component, which the Titans clearly had more of overall. The ultimate goal is winning, and Tennessee’s lower turnover totals on offense were a component to postseason births, and two playoff victories as well.
Pittsburgh’s results that land between Tennessee and Atlanta for the most part, and have an 0-3 postseason record in the timeframe. Of course, this is one of several factors that go into having success in January football, which Smith and Pittsburgh are obviously aiming to return to.
Encouragingly, 2023 was the Steelers best mark in the last five season with only 16 offensive turnovers. That tied for 15th best since 2019, aligning closely to Smith’s success in Tennessee. Paired with Pittsburgh being above average each of the last four years, with the injury riddled 2019 season being the only exception leaves optimism.
Another big factor are key changes to Pittsburgh’s offensive roster, most notably at quarterback. Former Steeler Kenny Pickett of course had his warts, but a main forte was taking care of the football. Now we anticipate what things will look like with Russell Wilson, and/or Justin Fields depending on how opportunities unfold.
Let’s look at their teams’ offensive turnover totals, along with team ranks in 2023:
Pittsburgh (Kenny Pickett): 16, T-2nd.
Denver (Russell Wilson): 22, T-17th.
Chicago (Justin Fields): 25, T-21st.
Noticeable difference, unfortunately for the worse for Pittsburgh’s new position room. The bad news amidst Pittsburgh’s nice turnover results last season were being way too conservative, ranking 25th in total yards and tied for 27th in points per game last season, which was actually even worse prior to Pickett being replaced by Mason Rudolph in three starts (and wins) to close 2023.
A similar takeaway to Smith’s poorer results in Atlanta can be made for Wilson and Fields, lacking in team talent compared to their new surroundings in Pittsburgh. While it will be a wait and see game, both new black and gold QBs offer far more in other regards, such as deep ball effectiveness and as scramblers. That may result in more overall rewards on offense, but with that could come the risk of regression such as turnovers.
The hope though is with Smith’s return to an OC position where he was more successful. Married with the Steelers track record of taking care of the football, it will aid in a similar turnover result this year along with positive trends in several areas of the offense for the black and gold. Many would agree that Pittsburgh’s roster is more talented than Atlanta, Denver, and Chicago, which lends to optimism for Smith and the Steelers offense to pair for a 2024 season that includes a well overdue playoff victory, and hopefully more.
