Throughout the rest of the offseason, the Steelers Depot crew will debate a number of hot-button topics ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers season. Weighing in on each side of a discussion while you tell us who you agree with.
Today’s topic. Does the lack of a No. 2 wide receiver create concern George Pickens will be double-teamed and taken away by opposing defenses? Ross McCorkle and Alex Kozora debate.
Ross McCorkle: George Pickens Is In For A Struggle With No Clear WR2
George Pickens is now the unquestioned WR1 in the Steelers’ offense as he enters the next phase of his career. With a new offensive system and new quarterbacks, there are many changes surrounding him, so it is difficult to project exactly how things will shake out. But I am more than a little worried about him being the WR1 without a suitable threat at WR2 opposite him.
For his entire NFL career, he has had one of the league’s best separators across from him in Diontae Johnson. According to Next Gen Stats, Pickens is tied for the seventh-lowest average separation with 2.3 yards per target. He makes circus catches and can create yards after the catch with the best of them, but he is not a guy who gets wide-open with his route running.
If you add another layer onto that with more frequent double teams and tighter windows, that could take away some of what has made Pickens so effective in the deep passing game. His performance in contested catch situations is actually fairly poor despite what many might believe from his highlight reel. Pro Football Focus had him down for 25 contested catch opportunities and just eight that actually resulted in a reception. That 32-percent contested catch rate ranks in the bottom half of the league among wide receivers. With double teams, those contested catch opportunities will become more frequent.
The Steelers will still find ways to get him involved. Defenses won’t be able to commit two defenders to him in a run-heavy offense constantly. But when it will matter the most is in situational football. Whether it is a key third down or a two-minute drill where the Steelers will obviously be looking to pass, that is when the double team issue will be felt the most. That is where having a solid WR2 is very necessary. If opposing defenses sell out to stop Pickens in those situations, would you be comfortable with a crucial fourth-down play targeting one of Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, or Calvin Austin III to decide the outcome of a game? The Steelers are always in close games, so you know it is going to happen at least once if not several times.
Just look at the Steelers’ defense lately. They have done a great job taking away opposing teams’ top options and forcing them to win in other ways. It can and will be done, and then the Steelers are left with a bunch of guys who are unproven to help propel the offense’s success.
There is also the possibility that the Steelers’ run game doesn’t hit the ground running as many anticipate it will. Two new offensive linemen, guys switching sides, a new style of blocking to get used to with the wide-zone scheme – these could all contribute to a slow start on the ground. What then?
I am not saying that I think Pickens will have a bad year. What I am saying is that having no WR2 threat will create some logistical issues for the offense, particularly with Pickens’ effectiveness in the most important moments of games.
Alex Kozora: George Pickens Being Doubled Isn’t Concerning
Unless and until the Pittsburgh Steelers add a significant player at wide receiver, there’s zero question George Pickens will draw the defense’s attention. That, we can all agree on. Though I want the team to add another wideout and complete this offense, it doesn’t stem from my concern about Pickens being taken away.
Sure, on paper, Pickens looks like he’ll be doubled and removed from the Steelers’ game plan. But think about how Pittsburgh’s offense is structured. A heavy run game with big personnel. Multiple tight ends are a staple of Arthur Smith’s offense and should carry over this year, given the Steelers’ depth at the position with Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt, and Rodney Williams.
Anytime an offense goes heavy, a defense must respect it. Not only do they tend to stay in their base 4-3/3-4, but they also need to match numbers in the box. At the least, they want to be even, but preferably plus-one to have a free defender against the back. Should Pittsburgh come out in say, 12 personnel with two tight ends, that’s seven blockers up front. That run-handed look will compel teams to roll the strong safety down and bring him into the box to stop the ground game. That creates a single-high look with just one deep safety in the middle of the field, making it difficult to roll and double an outside receiver like Pickens.
Not only will the Steelers offer the illusion of the run, but hopefully, their ground game will compel teams to sell out and stop it. If Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are putting up big numbers behind a restocked offensive line, you can bet defenses will do everything they can to slow them down. They have to. Or else they’ll be chewed up all four quarters. Doing that creates one-on-one matchups for Pickens on the outside, moments in which he excels.
What about third down? Even the best running games faced third and long or a two-minute drill. Defenses are playing more two-high than years prior and in those moments, Pickens will be taken away? Possibly, but not necessarily. That comes down to Arthur Smith. In those moments, Pickens must be creatively aligned.
That can mean a variety of things. Stacks and bunches to help create free releases off the line and make it uncertain how Pickens will stem his route, making it harder to track and double. Changing his leverage and positioning by getting him in the slot more often and diversifying his route tree. Areas he improved as a sophomore compared to a rookie, it’s one reason why his YAC skyrocketed, but parts of his game that still need to grow. Or even sometimes lining Pickens as the backside ‘X’ receiver instead of the frontside ‘Z.’ Force teams to obviously declare and push coverage to him, leaving the trips side one-on-one and play the matchup game there. That’s what defenses did against Antonio Brown, and it helped present a clearer pre-snap picture.
Of course, there will be times when Pickens is taken away. He is undoubtedly this team’s best wide receiver, and if teams want to game-plan away a target, they can. But given all the other mitigating factors, it won’t be the problem it appears on the surface if the Steelers’ run game and Arthur Smith do their job.
