If new Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry carries the ball 300 times in 2024, it means the Ravens are winning a lot of games. It just might also mean Henry won’t be able to lift his legs come the playoffs. While Ravens OC Todd Monken didn’t declare 300 carries to be the team’s goal with Henry, he wouldn’t be upset if that was the outcome.
“I know this: If [Henry] carries it 300 times, we’re having a helluva year,” Monken said Thursday via the Ravens’ team website. “It means we’re running it a lot. It means we’re up in games. We want him to finish, [and] we want him to be the closer.”
Henry was the Ravens big free agency add, replacing the departed J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, linking up with former Ravens OC Greg Roman in Los Angeles. After spending his entire career in Tennessee as one of football’s best backs, Henry signed a two-year deal worth $16 million. Now, he’ll look to anchor one of the league’s strongest rushing attacks over the past several seasons.
But 300 carries? Even for King Henry, that’s asking a lot. To his credit, he’s done it three times in his career, most recently with 349 in 2022. He’s led the NFL in carries each of the last two seasons, finishing last year with 280. But a healthy Henry is the team’s goal for their playoff push and hopeful postseason run.
“We want him to make it through the season. It’s a long season – 17 games,” Monken said.
Now 30, Henry reaching 300 carries would be an achievement. Adrian Peterson was the last player 30 or older to finish a season with 300-plus carries, recording 327 in his age-30 season back in 2015. Beyond him, one of freakiest players of his era, the list of even relatively recent names are short. Thomas Jones did it for the New York Jets in 2009 while Tiki Barber did so for the New York Giants in 2005 and 2006.
Even in a 17-game season and knowing Henry’s durability, it’s likely he falls short of the 300-carry mark. Finishing in the 250-280 range is ideal, still showing the Ravens are running at will but without burning up whatever tread is left on Henry’s tires. One challenge the team will face is finding another back to rotate in. Baltimore’s always had a deep bench of runners but looks thinner heading into 2024. Justice Hill looks like next man up and has flashed, though his overall production is still light. Keaton Mitchell, an exciting rookie last year, is coming off a torn ACL and won’t be ready Week 1. The team did draft Marshall’s Rasheen Ali in the mid-rounds, a well-rounded back with good size who could see action with a solid summer.
Henry’s meter will be running by the time he faces Pittsburgh for the first time. The Steelers and Ravens don’t play until Week 11, Pittsburgh’s first AFC North game. That fact is unusual but late starts versus the Ravens aren’t. In 2022, Pittsburgh and Baltimore played in Weeks 14 and 17. In 2021, they matched up in Weeks 13 and 18.
