The Cleveland Browns boasted the Pass Rush Win Rate king last year in Myles Garrett, who earned himself the Defensive Player of the Year Award, accordingly. Even though he finished tied for seventh in sacks and tackles for loss, he managed to “win” more reps, or something.
Now, the Browns believe they have another win-rater on their hands in second-round DT Mike Hall Jr. He finished the 2023 season with just 1.5 sacks after recording 4.5 the year before for Ohio State. Reporters asked head coach Kevin Stefanski about his decline in sack production, and he had an answer.
“It’s kind of like when we’ve talked about Myles (Garrett), like over the second half of the year where I think everybody focuses on sacks,” he told reporters. “Really with Mike, he was really one of the more disruptive forces in college football, specifically in pass rush.”
“Guys that can win one-on-one, they create pressure,” the Browns head coach added regarding Hall. “That’s just a lot more informative than looking at someone’s counting stats or sack numbers, which just aren’t as predictive.”
Analytics outlets like Pro Football Focus argue that stats like Pass Rush Win Rate are better indicators of future success. The idea of a pass rush win is not dependent on you doing anything on a rep except beating your block. It doesn’t matter if you impact the play in any other way. The theory is if you’re successful enough at winning your matchup, you will eventually produce.
Hall is a little bit smaller than your prototypical defensive tackle at 6-3, 290 pounds. But that’s the model the Browns want. Stefanski said that it’s not a space-eating position in their system, but they want guys who can rush the passer. They believe they have that in Hall.
“Mike has really exceptional physical tools. He has outstanding get-off, quickness,” Stefanski said. “He’s very long, and he uses his hands well. And I think specifically, as he continues to grow into his body, he can already win two ways, and I think realistically, he’ll very quickly learn how to win three.”
The Browns have veterans at the defensive tackle position like Shelby Harris, Dalvin Tomlinson and Maurice Hurst. They don’t need Hall to be a space eater, if we’re being honest. If he can come in as a rookie and offer a spark in the pass rush, that’s enough to start.
And there is plenty of value in data like Pass Rush Win Rate. It is important to be able to win reliably, for the simple reason that you’re not going to produce a lot if you don’t. That doesn’t mean you always take the guy with a higher rate of rep “wins” over the producer. But in the case of Hall, we know he can produce more; the numbers don’t always reflect the talent.
