Over the course of the past two seasons, WR George Pickens’ production has actually been pretty solid despite playing in an inept offensive system with poor quarterback play. He’s just 23 years old, but already has a season with 1,140 receiving yards under his belt despite the undesirable circumstances holding him back.
It is reasonable to expect Pickens to improve with his own play given how young he is, and then the rest of the situation on offense should improve alongside him. That could mean huge things for him in 2024.
Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay recently listed six players who are primed to make an “All-Pro” leap, and Pickens was included.
“Despite playing in one of the league’s most inept offenses for the entirety of his two-year career, George Pickens has still managed to put up some respectable numbers while positioning himself to soon emerge as one of the NFL’s next great wideouts,” Kay wrote. “Pickens accomplished these impressive numbers while working within the constraints of former offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s scheme, a limited system primarily orchestrated by quarterback Kenny Pickett, who failed to develop.
“With Arthur Smith taking over as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator, and nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson ready to revitalize his career with the club, it should come as little surprise if and when Pickens makes a herculean leap in Year 3.”
Pickens expressed frustration at the end of last season when he failed to achieve his goal of being named to the Pro Bowl, but he is much better positioned to do so in 2024.
Here were the All-Pro selections last year and their stat lines to compare how much better of a season Pickens will need to make the leap.
– George Pickens: 1,140 yards, 63 receptions, 5 TDs, 18.1 yards/reception
First-Team All-Pro:
– Tyreek Hill: 1,799 yards, 119 receptions, 13 TDs, 15.1 yards/reception
– CeeDee Lamb: 1,749 yards, 135 receptions, 12 TDs, 13.0 yards/reception
– Amon-Ra St. Brown: 1,515 yards, 119 receptions, 10 TDs, 12.7 yards/reception
Second-Team All-Pro:
– A.J. Brown: 1,456 yards, 106 receptions, 7 TDs, 13.7 yards/reception
– Puka Nacua: 1,486 yards, 105 receptions, 6 TDs, 14.2 yards/reception
– Brandon Aiyuk: 1,342 yards, 75 receptions, 7 TDs, 17.9 yards/reception
– Mike Evans: 1,255 yards, 79 receptions, 13 TDs, 15.9 yards/reception
He isn’t that far off the second-team list. A couple more touchdowns and another 10 receptions or so, and he likely would have been in the conversation. His yards per reception led the league last year, so another 10 catches with one or two of those being touchdowns would have put him in the mix for an All-Pro selection. First-team would have to be a pretty large leap in production for him as each of those guys caught at least 119 passes which is an 89-percent increase over Pickens. Even the most optimistic of projections probably doesn’t have him achieving that.
But pairing a quarterback who led the NFL in average depth of target last season (32.9 ADOT) with the receiver who led the league in yards per reception should account for some improvement. The added talent along the offensive line should also give more time for such plays to develop, and the new offensive system should find ways to utilize Pickens other than the back shoulder sideline fade that he made most of his money on with Pickett at QB.
The leap to second-team All-Pro really isn’t that big, and with Pickens set to see significantly more targets in 2024 with Diontae Johnson off the roster, he definitely has a chance to make that list. It will all come down to how well the other receivers step up to avoid brackets and double teams on Pickens, and how well Pickens does against those inevitable double-team situations.
