Player: RB Jaylen Warren
Stock Value: Up
Reasoning: The Steelers’ recent decision doesn’t hand the future starting job to RB Jaylen Warren, but it does leave the door ajar. Pittsburgh elected not to exercise Najee Harris’ fifth-year option, which means that he is not under contract for 2025. Warren, who will be a restricted free agent in 2025, now has a pathway to a full-time role, accordingly. If the Steelers don’t re-sign or extend Harris, Warren could take over the lead role thereafter.
There’s a big semantic difference for Jaylen Warren between the Steelers picking up Najee Harris’ fifth-year option and not. By not doing so, he knows that Harris isn’t guaranteed to be a featured runner next season. Now, that’s not going to change the way that he plays or anything, and it won’t likely impact free agency. As I noted, he will be a restricted free agent and they’ll tender him high enough to stave off suitors.
But I also think there’s a big of a message here from the team. The Steelers are installing a new offense under Arthur Smith. Reportedly, one of the reasons they declined Harris’ option is because they want to wait and see how he fits. So essentially they’re declaring this a trial period for the future—for Harris and for Warren.
There’s a good chance the Steelers have an either/or choice between Harris and Warren next year. The franchise tag would be too much for Harris, but they’d likely need to extend him in the range of $4-6 million, at least. Warren likely receives a second-round restricted free agent tender, which is in that range.
Are you paying two running backs in the ballpark of $10 million or more? I mean, the Steelers could do that, but would they? I suppose that depends on how good both Harris and Warren look operating in Smith’s offense.
Pittsburgh’s decision not to commit to Harris in 2025 tells you something, though. For starters, they don’t believe in agreeing to pay him nearly $7 million for next season. Not without seeing what he does in this offense this season. And if they don’t like what they see, or don’t like it enough, then the door is open for Warren as a potential featured back.
As the season progresses, Steelers players’ stocks rise and fall. The nature of the evaluation differs with the time of year, with in-season considerations being more often short-term. Considerations in the offseason often have broader implications, particularly when players lose their jobs, or the team signs someone. This time of year is full of transactions, whether minor or major.
A bad game, a new contract, an injury, a promotion—any number of things affect a player’s value. Think of it as a stock on the market, based on speculation. You’ll feel better about a player after a good game, or worse after a bad one. Some stock updates are minor, while others are likely to be quite drastic, so bear in mind the degree. I’ll do my best to explain the nature of that in the reasoning section of each column.
