Player: ILB Payton Wilson
Stock Value: Purchased
Reasoning: The Steelers used their second of two third-round draft ILB Payton Wilson. An award-winning linebacker at the college level who tested very well, such athletes rarely fall so far. Reportedly, however, most teams in the league have serious concerns about his long-term medical prospects. At least 22 teams believe his body will only hold up to justify playing out his rookie contract. The Steelers disagreed with that medical assessment and took the opportunity to draft him as a result.
The Steelers did their homework on the inside linebacker class this year—more than I anticipated, to be honest. They came away from those efforts with Payton Wilson, one of the best defenders in college football last year. And they managed to land him late in the third round, amazingly enough.
Of course, a player with his resume doesn’t fall that far without some red flags. In Wilson’s case, it’s certainly not character but rather medicals. As outlets have widely covered, Wilson’s draft stock plummeted due to long-term concerns about his durability.
Reportedly, of a group of 22 teams that share medical records on prospects, all 22 teams felt Wilson would not reach a second contract. Rookies draft picks sign four-year deals, so the implication is he won’t play beyond that point. Or at least his health will be in such a state that teams won’t risk investing in him further.
The Steelers made it clear that they are not among those 22 medical teams who view Wilson’s medicals so pessimistically. The report suggested he “doesn’t have an ACL”, but they have a history with player with ACL issues. Hines Ward and Greg Lloyd are the two obvious names that come to mind, both of whom had long careers.
Even if Wilson has a relatively short career, the Steelers can still extract good value from him if he plays to the level that he showed he can in college. He earned both the Butkus and Chuck Bednarik Awards for his 2023 season. He is the rare linebacker who can do anything you ask of him from an athletic and intelligence perspective. Drafting him is a bit of a gamble, though he’s played healthy the past two years. Even so, the Steelers felt the gamble worth the risk, and now it’s up to Wilson to make them winners.
As the season progresses, Steelers players’ stocks rise and fall. The nature of the evaluation differs with the time of year, with in-season considerations being more often short-term. Considerations in the offseason often have broader implications, particularly when players lose their jobs, or the team signs someone. This time of year is full of transactions, whether minor or major.
A bad game, a new contract, an injury, a promotion—any number of things affect a player’s value. Think of it as a stock on the market, based on speculation. You’ll feel better about a player after a good game, or worse after a bad one. Some stock updates are minor, while others are likely to be quite drastic, so bear in mind the degree. I’ll do my best to explain the nature of that in the reasoning section of each column.
