There was a theme with several of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ draft picks this year. It seemed like with each of their first four picks, people were wondering how did that prospect fall? As it turns out, Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis put a quantifiable value to that feeling.
They took consensus draft boards and consensus mock drafts, basically aggregating several of the top sources around the NFL media landscape, averaged those values, and then compared it to where each player ended up getting selected to determine if they were underdrafted or overdrafted.
The Steelers placed fourth in this “Draft Capital Over Expected” metric that he put together for the sum of their entire draft class with just the Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, and Kansas City Chiefs edging them out.
Their post, which I linked above, goes further into the specifics on their methodology. Obviously, an aggregation of draft boards and mock drafts isn’t going to reflect what NFL teams think of players, but the value they put to the Steelers seems to fit.
Starting with OT Troy Fautanu in the first round, there wasn’t a whole lot of chatter on him leading up to the draft in Pittsburgh because many thought he was going to be drafted out of range for the Steelers. Well-respected draft analyst Dane Brugler had him at No. 9 on his big board, for example.
Next was C Zach Frazier, who was receiving some first-round buzz late in the process. Some have referred to him as the best center in the draft, including OL guru Duke Manyweather, who trains many college and NFL linemen. There was growing fear leading up to the draft that none of the top three centers would be available at pick No. 51, but the Steelers stayed put and drafted him.
Both of their picks in the third round also fit the description of players who were underdrafted compared to their level of talent and pre-draft buzz. NFL insider Tony Pauline suggested that WR Roman Wilson was going to be the Steelers’ pick in the second round, but they never expected Zach Frazier to fall to them. They ended up with both players without having to make any trades.
And then, finally, LB Payton Wilson is arguably the biggest value of them all. The consensus first-team All-American and the winner of the Butkus and Bednarik Awards in 2023 slid all the way to the end of the third round. There are medical concerns that pushed him down or even removed him from teams’ boards, but he was healthy the last two seasons in college and highly productive. His tape is first-round worthy.
That is a lot of value with each of their first four selections, and it is reflected by Sharp’s chart. Does this guarantee it will be a successful draft class? No — that won’t be decided for at least a couple of years from now. But it shows just how well the board broke for the Steelers overall, especially at their positions of need.
