Welcome back to your weekly Pittsburgh Steelers mailbag. As always, we’re here for the next hour to answer whatever is on your mind.
To your questions!
Brian Tollini:
Hey AK!
Give me an individual % chance of the following (5) positions being drafted by the Steelers in the first (4) selections…
-C
-OT
-WR
-DL
-CB
Alex: It’s hard to give an exact number. What’s the difference between 20 versus 25 percent, ya know? Obviously a lot of needs there are they can’t make them all fit in the top five picks. That doesn’t even consider ILB, which they feel likely to draft based on pre-draft movements.
Center, it’s gotta happen. Even if it’s lower than we expect, it’s gotta happen by the time Day Two is done. Unless they have a whole new direction planned. Based on their OT homework, that’s also high. So those feel like center 90 percent, offensive tackle 75 percent. Issue at OT is if they don’t get one in Round One, if they go in a different direction for whatever reason, then who are the Round 2/3 guys? Starts getting harder.
Receiver, I think that’s high, too. More likely Round Two/Three but that’s like 80 percent. D-line, the interest is there. I’ll put that at 70 percent. Just gotta find the name and they may end up having to wait until Day Three; they’ve brought in some of those prospects who could fit later on.
Corner, there’s a need, especially in the slot, but they know Patrick Peterson is a backup plan. I’ll put it at 55 percent. Something’s gotta give, some position will get the short straw.
David Rudin:
Alright Alex my man, I’m putting you on the hotseat. You’re GM for Day 1 & 2 of the draft, the hopes and dreams of Steelers Nation rest squarely on your shoulders. Which camp best describes you?
1) Risk Averse: Take best rated Center in round 1, accusations of “reaching” be damned! OT and the other positions, figure out as you go.
2) Medium Risk: Take the best OT available in round 1, try and move up in round 2 for the best center left, no worries if you whiff and have to settle for a middle round center and have a veteran like Cole fill in until the rookie is ready.
3) Bombs Away! Best player on the board in round 1, be that DL, Corner, Receiver, Center or OT. You may flame out but hey its going to be spectacular!
No pressure.
ColoradoDave
Alex: Ha, I think I’d be in camp two. Medium risk. Even before I read it all, that’d be my strategy. OT in Round One, get the better talent, move Jones over to LT. Go be aggressive on Day Two about a center. Yeah, it’s going to create issues elsewhere in filling needs but if you have a strong o-line, you’re going to have the foundation you need to win. You’ll figure out the rest.
Peter Rauch:
Hey Alex,
The Steelers seemingly went into last season without a backup center on the active roster. Nate Herbig ended up showing enough to be the reserve at that spot. They seem to think of him as a center capable player. It is obvious that the Steelers would like to draft a center later this month relatively early, perhaps even as early as round 1. But is it possible that Steelers brass doesn’t think of the position as being as much of an emergency as we do externally because of Herbig’s presence? Could that be why they haven’t added anyone on the free agent side?
Alex: They definitely view him as in the mix, the top internal name, but man, what a gamble. Backup versus your 17 game starter are wildly different things. Khan said they wanted to find the next great Steelers center…and Herbig, well, he ain’t it.
I think they didn’t sign a low level vet FA because he’d on a similar playing field as Herbig. The “meh” veteran option. They want a starter. So you draft a rookie early and have him compete with Herbig.
Chris Carey: Hi Alex,
If you were to bet someone else’s house – who would you predict will be our starting QB week 1 of 2025? Any news on a reasonable Fields extension coming soon?
Alex: Ha, man, I have no idea. With how 2024 went, I’m just along for the ride. Use this year to find that out. Gerry Dulac’s floated a Fields extension and Dave’s discussed it with me on the pod. Possibly. But if I’m Fields, I don’t want to lock myself down to a place where I enter as the backup. From a year or money standpoint, I’d let this season ride. Become the rebuilding project in Pittsburgh, sorta in the way Mitch Trubisky was viewed in 2022. And next year’s QB class isn’t likely to be as strong as this years, one reason why Fields’ market was so quiet. Weren’t many dancing partners.
DropTheHammer:
What does “positional value” really mean? I get that some positions get paid more because they are just so rare. Each team needs two tackles, e.g., plus a swing tackle. That adds up to 96 roster spots every week, plus backups. The planet theory says there simply aren’t enough bodies, which means limited supply, higher salaries for second and third contracts, and thus extra salary savings for early round picks.
But is that all the phrase means? People tend to use it as if a tackle provides more “value” on the field than a guard or center. I’ve always been taught otherwise. That each player has equal importance to whether the team wins or loses on any given day, subject only to how well they play on that day. Really poor play by anyone loses games almost no matter what; great individual play makes the odds better but can’t win games; and safeties like Polamalu or centers like Pouncey make just as big a difference as edge rushers like Deebo or the tackle we dream that Broderick Jones could someday become. Quarterback being the exception to prove the rule.
So is “positional value” purely a salary concept? Or does one non-QB position inherently make a bigger difference than others?
Alex: It’s that all positions don’t carry the same weight. You eventually have to choose what’s most important to you as a team. Your building blocks. All the rooms in your house occupy the same air. But your kitchen is more important than your guest bedroom. One, you can live with. One, you can’t.
Football’s fundamentals are the Parcells adage: guys who can throw the football, guys who can protect the guy throwing the football, guys who can sack the guy throwing the football. That’s where it starts. And so OTs have more value than say ILB because they gotta block the guy trying to sack their QB. And the DE has more value because he needs to get to the QB.
In a nutshell, that’s the idea. You only have so many resources and can’t have studs at all 22 spots. What is your priority. What can you not live without? That’s positional value.
Michael Stickings:
Hi Alex,
Rumours persist — at least on that crappy one-letter social media site — about the Steelers still being in the trade market for a WR. I’m hoping this is the case, because I’m hoping the Steelers go OT/C in the first two rounds, and while there will certainly be solid WRs available in the third, I think they need a more established co-#1 to play alongside the more volatile GP, especially as they seem to be in win-now mode. (In other words, GP + a rookie WR + the enigma of CA + a bunch of #3/4 WRs doesn’t really do it for me.)
Obviously Aiyuk and McLaurin are two big names, but, below that top tier, do you have any sense of potential targets that might be realistic options for the Steelers? Maybe not #1s, but certainly solid #2s to complement GP in the mold of, alas, Diontae. Someone they could get for a future 3rd or 4th, certainly not significant draft capital.
Alex: If I’m Pittsburgh and going to swing, you swing big. Otherwise, just draft a guy. Younger and cheaper. So the names to suggest are and should be “dreamin’.” If you made me picks names, it’d be Aiyuk or AJ Brown or Davante Adams. All pretty “out there” suggestions, I know, but if you’re making a splash, you make a splash. Brown seemed unhappy in Philly and has an Arthur Smith connections. Adams is probably happier now than Antonio Pierce is full-time HC but he wasn’t happy with how things have gone. And Aiyuk seems plausibly available.
None of that probably happens. But I’m not looking for a Velus Jones, “he’s ok” type of option. I’ll just take a draft pick instead.
Novatech LV: Hey Alex, would you still draft JPJ with a bit of concussion history? For me I’ll pass.
Alex: It would require more information. More of a background than a blurb from Dane Brugler. It’s important to note, no doubt, but I can’t make a thumbs up/down decision based off that alone. It would require more of a medical analysis.
Dan Blocker: HI Alex! If you had to rate these three players having a impact (even a minor one) at these positions of need this year, how would you rate them? CB Luq Barcoo, OT Dylan Cook, C Ryan McCollum, and WR Denzel Mims. At some point, you’d think a fringe player might break through? Thanks!
Alex: Fun questions, thanks for asking it. Cook easily number one. Really impressed by his camp last year. He was kept on the 53 because Pittsburgh knew they’d lose him to waivers otherwise. Big and athletic OT with good hand use and still learning the position (was initially a college QB). I’m very intrigued. Maybe he becomes the swing tackle. Big camp for him.
The others…eh. Barcoo has ball skills but is a pretty weak tackler. McCollum couldn’t crack the backup C job last year despite it being up for grabs. Mims, I liked out of Baylor, but he hasn’t played on STs and his college coach Frisman Jackson is now gone.
I guess I’d go Barcoo, Mims, and McCollum but expectations low for all three.
John Hinton: Alex – Who is your ’24 draft class crush and why?
Alex: I don’t know if I got the hearts in my eyes over one prospect like I did Benton last year. I really like Georgia WR Ladd McConkey. Love me a route runner. And he’s the best in show. I just don’t think he’s a true No. 1 defined as your passing game running through him, designed around him. But he’s a lot of fun.
I can’t believe how little love TCU OL Brandon Coleman is getting. He should be a Top-75 pick. Going to be a stellar guard who can play tackle. And many viewing him as a Day Three guy. No way.
Marcel Chris Chauvet: What do you do if Maye or McCarthy start to fall? Any temptation to do after them
Alex: I hadn’t done much research on the top of the class. I get the angle but it would still require a trade up and I’m fine with letting the ’24 season play out with Wilson/Fields. If I loved one of those guys on a deep dive tape study, I’d probably be more tempted…I still don’t know if there’s a franchise, long-term guy on the roster right now. But I just hadn’t spent much energy there, to be honest. I’ll end up doing close to 50 formal reports plus watching say, 25 other guys in-depth, and I just have to spend that time on positions and outcomes they’re more likely to take.
Christopher Pokins:
Hey Alex,
Just wondering…. If Steelers Select Barton in Rd1, and say Frazier is still on the board rd2, or another top 5 center still available rd3-4, any chance they technically double dip, playing Barton at OT? Just thinking this if the value on the board is just too good to pass up. Then be set at center and have options if the second center drafted doesn’t develop? Just a thought.
Alex: I would doubt that. I think Barton is being viewed as an interior guy. I wouldn’t expect them to do a Barton-Frazier double-dip. Pat Meyer likes length at OT.
