For several years now, I have kept a personal running spreadsheet during the draft process. The goal for me was to learn about the players, gathering information that I have tweaked along the way as I’m sure I will continue to do in the future. I will share a visual and some takeaways from the data points I create each year, simply called interest and athletic scores, with explanations to follow.
As Dave Bryan and Alex Kozora discuss regularly, the Steelers have a type of player they look for, and what the scores attempt to achieve is seeing who checks many of those boxes or vice versa. You will notice many of the inspirations for these scores come from their studies of draft trends over the years for Pittsburgh, and have fared well in who Pittsburgh has ultimately drafted.
While there is no perfect way to predict what selections the Steelers will make in the 2024 draft at the end of the month, I feel great about what the data points measure and, of course, would love to hear feedback as I’m always looking to improve the points system. Also, there is only so much time in the day and additional things I’d like to measure, so I focus on the crucial and/or practical choices.
Now, for more explanation of how the scores come together. The biggest point I want to make is that this is not a big board or round projection view. Rather, I am trying to pinpoint names the Steelers may select regardless of when they are drafted. After I get a healthy pool of names that I hear about or research, I begin the scoring.
Interest Score: Here, I configured a points system for the following important factors: College performance, body type, experience, age, position, competition level, pro day attendance, pre-draft meeting(s), and Senior/Shrine Bowl invitations/participation.
This matches up nicely with the Athletic Score: simply 11 combined metrics excluding wingspan and whether or not they were within a threshold in each metric of any player drafted at their position by the Steelers since 2013.
Clear as mud? Here are the quarterbacks (QBs) that were combine invites:
NOTE: If you don’t see a name please ask, I have many more non-combine players compiled but excluded them for a cleaner chart.
As you’d expect, Pittsburgh has shown little interest in the quarterback position considering the work done this offseason, revamping the room with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Also, athletic scores overall are lower as most players don’t test fully.
Topping the 2024 list is J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, with an 8.9 athletic score, which ties for 42nd in the entire draft class. His highly attended Pro Day (including HC Mike Tomlin and GM Omar Kahn) gets an asterisk with their slew of talent at a variety of positions. Other high-interest scores include age (21), performance last season, and body type. His lower, but still respectable mark was experience compared to his peers. Six athletic score, checking all the boxes he participated in (measurements, shuttle, and three-cone). Consensus first-round pick.
Then, just three players land in the seven tier of interest scores. First up is Drake Maye of North Carolina (7.7 interest score, four athletic score). Stronger interest scores were Pro Day attendance (including OC Arthur Smith, likely for other prospects), age (21), 2023 performance, and body type. Experience was a lower mark. Checked the athletic boxes he participated in (measurements, shuttle, and three cone), with five DNPs. Likely top-ten selection.
Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. ties for third at the position with a 7.0 interest score. Reported pre-draft meeting seemingly never occurred. High-interest marks in experience, performance last year, body type, and Senior Bowl participation. Age (23) was a lower, but not concerning mark. An eight athletic score tied for first among combine invited QBs, checking every box he participated in (DNPs on the bench, shuttle, and three-cone). Late first or early second-rounder, in my opinion.
Jayden Daniels of LSU (7.0 interest score, three athletic score). Highly attended Pro Day, but deserves an asterisk with their slew of talent. Experience and performance last season also highlights his interest score, but body type (only 210 pounds) and age were low marks. Only measured in athletically, hence the low score, checking only the height, arm length, and hand size boxes. Also, a likely top-ten selection.
A combine invite that had the only pre-draft meeting at QB was Florida State’s Jordan Travis (6.4 interest, two athletic). Only measured in and missed the height/weight thresholds of Pittsburgh’s draft history. Projected to go on day two or three. None had perfect 11 athletic scores, unsurprising considering so many incomplete workouts.
No pre-draft meetings for non-combine invites. Louisville’s Jack Plummer has the best athletic score of all QBs in the 2024 draft (ten), pairing that with a 7.1 interest score, and could see him as a late/undrafted possibility to fill out Pittsburgh’s QB room.
Pittsburgh’s interest is obviously greater at other positions, with late and undrafted candidates far more likely to possibly complete the room for training camp. One thing’s for sure: I can’t wait to see how it pans out.
