Today, I wanted to continue learning about new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. The next important element of play I wanted to examine is conversions, looking at third down and red zone (touchdown = conversion). The goal is to see how the Pittsburgh Steelers and Smith as a playcaller (since 2019) have stacked up league-wide in that span.
Here are those results (160 qualifying teams):
The first thing that jumps out is Smith’s stellar red zone marks as offensive coordinator in Tennessee. In the five-year span, the 2019 and 2020 Titans red zone offense ranked second and third league-wide, with 75.6 and 75.0 conversion rates. This is huge in the obvious and ultimate goal of Smith delivering more points in Pittsburgh, who have been below average in this regard the last three seasons.
Third downs were also a strong element of play for the 2020 Titans, with a 46.2 conversion rate that ranked 18th. Pairing this with their third rank in red zone conversions aided a sixth-ranked 30.7 ppg since 2019. That season, Tennessee was below average on third downs, with a much lower 37.8 conversion rate.
A bit surprising was the second-best third-down team in our sights, the 2022 Steelers. Pittsburgh’s third down conversion rate came in at 44.9 percent, which tied for 29th in the span in QB Kenny Pickett’s rookie year (13 games). That group’s 51.9 red zone conversion rate was below average, though, an unfortunately common theme in recent seasons for the black and gold.
The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers were above average in both conversion rates, 42.2 percent on third downs and 63.5 in the red zone. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 33 touchdowns that year, compared to just 24 from all Steelers QBs the last two seasons combined. Ouch.
The remaining Pittsburgh squads were below average in both, particularly the injury-riddled 2019 season. They posted a 34.4 third down conversion rate and the second-worst 35.0-percent red zone conversion rate in the last five years. Roethlisberger’s final hoorah in 2021 was much closer to the league average: 38.9 on third downs and 54 percent in the red zone.
Last year, the Steelers were 36.6 on third down and 47.6 in the red zone, each a far cry from ideal. Seeing Pittsburgh so far down the list is soul-crushing, as our Alex Kozora highlighted during the season. This specific context circles us back to the hope/need for Smith and the 2024 Steelers offense to produce much better results in these money situations.
The Atlanta years tamper expectations, with Smith’s results coming down to earth as the Falcons head coach compared to his time in Tennessee. True in the majority of my studies on Smith, 2022 was his best season in these terms, with an above-average 41.8 third-down conversion rate and around league mean 55.6 in the red zone. 2021 was eerily similar to Pittsburgh in the same season (38.9 third down, 53.7 red zone).
Smith’s final results with Atlanta in 2023 were particularly discouraging in terms of the red zone. Their 46.8 conversion rate was nearly a full percentage point lower than the Steelers last season, and Smith’s lowest mark as a play caller. They were not great on third down either, but right at the NFL average, which is easier to stomach (40 percent).
So, the big question is if Smith can return to his success with Tennessee, possibly benefiting from returning to OC duties once again. Being a top-three red zone offense both years with the Titans is extremely encouraging to see on Smith’s resume, along with 2020’s top-ten third down and ppg rates aiding a promotion to head coach the Falcons. His second season in Atlanta (2022) was the best of that tenure in many ways, including an acceptable third down rate.
Pittsburgh’s 2022 third-down conversions were a team-best in the last five seasons, which is the only encouraging fact in recent years. With largely below-average results and 2023 near the bottom of the league in money situations, we get specific context to the work that’s ahead for Smith and the black and gold in 2024. Here’s to hoping it’s a match made in heaven.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
