Are you tired of hearing about Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields and the trade speculation revolving around him? Personally, I’m ready for something to finally get done with Fields so we can find out whether he’ll be a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
While most of you probably feel like I do at this point, we might be waiting at least another full week to find out which team will ultimately acquire Fields from the Bears. In the meantime, however, I figured late on this Saturday night might be a great time to pass along the deeper thought that Adam Schefter of ESPN has on the Fields and his possible pending trade situation that he passed along during a Friday interview on the ‘Pardon My Take’ podcast.
First, Schefter was asked during that interview to give his best guess on what sort of trade compensation he thinks the Bears might could get for Fields at this point.
“I think it’s pretty simple,” Schefter started to explain. “Ryan Poles, the Bears General Manager, worked in Kansas City at the time that they traded for Alex Smith. They traded two twos to the 49ers for Alex Smith. Sam Darnold, to me, when you talk to people, might be the most relevant compensation comparison. The Jets traded him to the Panthers in [2021], I believe it was, and it was for a six that year and a four and a two the next year. So, three picks. A two, four, and six. And I think that the Justin Fields compensation is somewhere between what Alex Smith got and what Sam Darnold brought.”
Somewhere between? Schefter sort of clarified that with a broad-ish guess.
“A two and a five. A two and a four. A two and a three. Something like that,” Schefter speculated.
Well, as you can tell, all of that was just Schefter speculating on what compensation to the Bears would be for Fields and the more he talked, the wider the gap seemed to become. That’s a pretty decent range overall and in no way did he nail himself down.
Moving on past Schefter’s trade compensation speculation when it comes to Fields, his thoughts got a lot more interesting. Well, at least to me they did. Schefter then started to walk through how many teams might actually be seriously considering trading for Fields at this point and how that might greatly impact what the Bears can get as compensation, something he also noted on SportsCenter Saturday.
“But here’s the problem, or the issue – like, who’s the team that’s doing it?” Schefter said. “Like, Atlanta might have some interest, might not. I think it’s got some interest in some other quarterbacks, too. Is Pittsburgh gonna do that when they still wanna give Kenny Pickett a chance? Are they gonna give up the compensation? And then, is there another, like, who else outside of Atlanta and Pittsburgh do you think would be main players for Justin Fields?”
Schefter was asked if he thinks either the Denver Broncos or New England Patriots might be in play for Fields and in so many words, he indicated that he would be surprised if either were. Schefter also went on to downplay his own brainstorming suggestion that the Washington Commanders might be a team in play for Fields.
“We’re trying to help out the Bears to see what other teams could conceivably step up for Justin Fields,” Schefter surmised.
Schefter then circled back to the Falcons and Steelers conceivably being the only two teams in play to trade for Fields at this point.
“So, by the way, what if the Steelers aren’t willing to trade that? And what if the Falcons aren’t willing to? Then what are you doing? Well, now you gotta wait for agency and to see some of the other movements,” Schefter answered to himself. “So, that, to me, like, we go into every offseason and there’s always a big question and I can’t think going into this offseason what’s any more interesting than the Bears at one. We assume they will take Caleb Williams if everything goes well, and then you would assume they move on from Justin Fields and where he goes. So, it’s two quarterbacks, two teams, we’ll see how it shakes out.”
After explaining how he thinks the Falcons and the Steelers might be the only two teams in play for Fields at this point, he was then asked if he thought the Las Vegas Raiders could be a team that’s added to the brief list of suitors.
“Anything’s possible,” Schefter said. “I don’t know. I haven’t heard them, but that’s my point. Whether it’s the Raiders or some other team, like what about the Seahawks? They keep being non-committal on Geno Smith. I don’t think they’re a team, but there’s gonna be a team, there are with most of these situations, that all of a sudden just pops in that you weren’t expecting that team to be in play for this player. And I don’t know, maybe it’s the Raiders.”
So, have we made any real progress here when it comes to Schefter’s deeper thoughts on the Fields solution? Meh, probably not overall. But to hear him talk it out in the manner that he did, and then going back and rolling through the logical options in my own head, I think even I am now resigned to the fact that Fields will land with either the Falcons or the Steelers. Possibly for even less of a compensation package than I first envisioned way back in December.
So, where does all of this leave me when it comes to my own thoughts on the plausibility of the Steelers trading for Fields? Well, the cheaper the compensation package for Fields, the more plausible I see it being. Duh! And quite honestly, if any compensation package does not include a second-round pick, the more I could see such a trade to Pittsburgh happening.
But Dave, what about the expensive fifth-year option decision in May for 2025 that comes with Fields and that potentially being an obstacle? That, along with a potential beefy trade compensation, has always been the biggest obstacles when it comes to trading for Fields and quite honestly, they are married together, in my opinion.
Now, if the trade compensation is low enough for Fields, the need to pick up his fifth-year option for 2025 also lowers. In short, say a third-round pick was the highest pick given in the trade package, the acquiring team might be less inclined to pick up his fifth-year option for 2025 and thus that team could then let him play in 2024 for the franchise tag next offseason. Basically, Fields, and the team acquiring him, would be faced with a boom or bust situation. I suppose if a 2025 second round pick was in play, instead of a third this year or next, that could be the case as well. I do love them second round picks, however.
In closing, yes, just like Schefter surmised, I could imagine scenario right now where the Falcons and the Steelers, and possibly even a third surprise team, might be the only ones in play for Fields at this point. That’s both logical and plausible with the annual scouting combine now winding down.
Personally, I tend to think that the Falcons are the favorites to land Fields at this point. However, there may only a bidding war between them, the Steelers, and perhaps one other quarterback-needy team. If that bidding war becomes reasonable, sure, I could see the Steelers having a chance in it, especially if the trade package wouldn’t require them having to automatically pick up Fields’ fully guaranteed fifth-year option for 2025.
Okay, that’s it. No more from me on Fields until something finally happens. Personally, I hope all this speculation comes to an end soon because it’s so tiring at this point with the start of the 2024 NFL league year still more than a week away.
