Player: QB Kenny Pickett
Stock Value: Down
Reasoning: The Steelers intending to sign QB Russell Wilson is bad news for Kenny Pickett. At the very least, he is in for stiff competition for the starting job, if he gets to seriously “compete”. At worst, this may be the beginning of the end of his time as a potential franchise quarterback in Pittsburgh.
Just as Kenny Pickett gets an actual NFL offensive coordinator to work with, he loses his starting job. Or at least, things may well play out that way. The Steelers replaced Matt Canada with Arthur Smith, but they’re also potentially replacing Pickett with Russell Wilson.
While he posted a winning record in 2023, Pickett’s game lacked the development the Steelers anticipated. Head coach Mike Tomlin always talks up the importance of a second-year jump, but if anything, Pickett looked worse. He protected the football well, but he also protected it from finding the end zone.
The Steelers should officially sign Wilson to a one-year deal on Wednesday. The ensuing press conferences figures to trigger interest and should set the tone for the offseason. I don’t imagine they’ll anoint Wison as the starter now, but they also won’t pretend he’s signing to back up Pickett. Wilson still intends to win two more Super Bowls beginning in his age-36 season. He doesn’t agree to a contract before the legal tampering period starts if he doesn’t believe he’s starting.
Perhaps Pickett gets every chance in the world to claim the starting job, but he has the win it. Wilson threw twice as many touchdowns in 2023 as Pickett has in his entire career. The former is far nearer to the end of his career—at least in theory. Perhaps Pickett’s career isn’t too far from over, either.
He is under contract with guaranteed salaries for the next two seasons, however, and I expect him to remain there. I don’t dismiss the notion of a trade, but I do believe the Steelers value him and won’t dump him. They’ll have to get good value for him, or Pickett will have to be the one who initiates it. I don’t see either of those scenarios playing out, sitting here today, but I also don’t see him starting.
As the season progresses, Steelers players’ stocks rise and fall. The nature of the evaluation differs with the time of year, with in-season considerations being more often short-term. Considerations in the offseason often have broader implications, particularly when players lose their jobs, or the team signs someone. This time of year is full of transactions, whether minor or major.
A bad game, a new contract, an injury, a promotion—any number of things affect a player’s value. Think of it as a stock on the market, based on speculation. You’ll feel better about a player after a good game, or worse after a bad one. Some stock updates are minor, while others are likely to be quite drastic, so bear in mind the degree. I’ll do my best to explain the nature of that in the reasoning section of each column.
