The Pittsburgh Steelers have been very active in free agency, including the addition of wide receiver Van Jefferson. Today, I wanted to look at and providing some data context to what Jefferson provided for the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons last season, along with the most targeted 2023 Steelers wide receivers (minimum of 40) from a stats perspective. The goal is to get some recency context, and see what we can glean for the upcoming season.
Let’s start with routes run and targets, for receivers quantity of opportunities:
Jefferson and the now-released Allen Robinson II land similarly on the opportunity chart. The former ran 355 routes (T-68th), but was targeted just 43 times, ranking 90th out of the 95 qualifiers.
Recently-traded Diontae Johnson was similar in routes run (missing time to injury), but more than double the targets (87). Not comparing the two in terms of caliber of receiver but emphasizing Jefferson’s role likely being more supportive, with more additions expected particularly via the draft.
Pittsburgh’s George Pickens was the only WR in our sights that was above average in both, with 505 routes run and 107 targets, ranking 28th in each last season. Seemingly primed to lead the room in 2024, and important context as we continue looking at the receivers 2023 campaigns.
Now examining targets further: adding yardage context with average distance of target (ADoT) along with average distance of catch (ADoC):
Here we see Jefferson was above the mean among his peers last season. His 16.1 ADoT was surprisingly high, ranking fourth-best in 2023, better than I expected going into the article. Looking at ADoC though, his number dipped to 9.2, tying for a much lower 34th rank.
So, there’s encouraging value in terms of down field targets, but connection is the key and hopeful improvement in 2024. Quality of QB play is a prime factor in this, which many would agree will be better for Pittsburgh than Atlanta in 2023, where Jefferson played the majority of the year (traded from the Rams after Week Five).
Pickens and Johnson were also above the mean in each, particularly the former, who was also above the trendline with a stronger ADoC on his targets. Here’s to hoping this point applies to Pickens as well, finding a strong connection early and often with the new faces at quarterback.
Here are NFL receivers on target catch rates (total receptions divided by the number of catchable targets) and drop percentages (drops divided by catchable targets):
This view is a valuable one for receivers, gauging who caught and dropped expected pass completions. Unfortunately, we see Jefferson as a below-average player in each last year, with an 82.6 on target catch rate (T-76th) and a 7.7 drop rate (T-66th).
Comparing that to Robinson, who had no drops and a great 93.3 on target catch rate, gives us a great idea of their differences (from last season). So, we’ll likely see more of a downfield presence that OC Arthur Smith employed with Jefferson in 2023, but there could be some frustrating moments in catches he can’t come down with.
Some unwarrantedly labeled Johnson as such last year, which was definitely true earlier in his career. His strong numbers toward the top right of the chart in 2023 put that assumption to bed, and gives added context on Jefferson. Pickens was also above average with a 3.7 drop percentage (T-18th), but just below the mean 86.8 on target catch rate that ranked a much lower 57th.
Next, I wanted to look at and provide overall completion percentages, along with receiver ratings (quarterback passer rating when targeted):
Yuck. Jefferson ranked dead last in both completion percentage (46.5) and receiver rating (22.3). Both abysmal marks, which the visual illustrates well. The average among qualifiers was approximately a 63-percent completion percentage and 90.0 receiver rating, to put Jefferson’s marks into greater perspective.
Only 26 of his 43 targets were catchable (60.5-percent), with 20 catches, two drops, 209 yards (709 intended air yards), only 25 in yards after catch and 14 yards after contact, and no touchdowns. So, tempered expectations and role for Jefferson will be interesting to monitor, and how the Steelers continue to fill the room for 2024.
Other important elements I wanted to look at come situationally, so here are receivers first down rates, along with broken/missed tackles per reception to see who earned/created extra yardage:
Not ideal Jefferson in 2023 once again. In particular, no broken or missed tackles on his receptions, true for only four of the 95 qualifying WRs. This is not what you want to see if you’re Pittsburgh, who finally improved in YAC last season following lengthy struggles previously.
Pickens and Johnson’s numbers highlight this point, with the latter leading the charge. That ability, and his strength in route separation is a ginormous void that must be filled (and produced), or those familiar issues could rear its ugly head again.
Pickens improved in this regard, too, but to a lesser extent considering his higher deep ball usage. He had a league-average 12.7 broken/missed tackle number (T-39th), and an even better 65.1 first down rate (32nd).
In terms of first downs, Jefferson landed at exactly 50-percent, so basically a coin flip on his targets. That tied for 78th, and isn’t horrible when considering such low marks earlier that highly contribute to this.
To close, let’s look at a more total view using points earned per route (total of a player’s EPA responsibility on targets using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For receivers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, off-target passes, dropped passes, and broken tackles) and positive rates (the percentage of passes thrown to the player that resulted in a positive EPA (i.e. a successful play for the offense):
As you’d probably expect considering all the data, Jefferson lands on the lower left with poor numbers in each. His points earned per route ranked second worst, and 39.7 positive percentage tied for fifth worst in 2023. Once again, we get a sense of this being more a depth move rather than a substantial role for Pittsburgh this season (depending on other signings/barring injury).
Robinson was also below the mean, but bested Jefferson with rankings of 83rd in points earned per route and 67th in positive percentage, who didn’t light the world on fire to say the least in 2023. Important context, unfortunately.
No focused players were comfortably above-average in each, though Johnson and Pickens came close. The former had the best points earned per route of focused players, ranking 16th league-wide, and a league average 50.6 positive rate (T-45th). Pickens had a slightly better 51.4 positive percentage (43rd), barely above the mean, and just below it in points earned per route (51st).
With Pickens massive year two leap in 2023, making a similar jump will be crucial for the 2024 season, including these important receiver stats. In whatever capacity, Jefferson can hopefully trend positively as well with a better offensive situation in 2024.
Here is a wrap up table of the data and conclusion:
So, the data points to Jefferson’s 2023 campaign being largely disappointing overall. A surprising bright side was the fourth highest ADoT, music to the ears of Steelers fans that have been yearning for more downfield passing. Of course that only helps if it’s connecting. Jefferson’s ADoC rank of 34th, much lower in comparison, has some to do with a below average offense.
It’s as much on him though, considering all the other data points were below average all the way to worst among qualifiers. Drop rate (66th), routes run (68th), on target catch rate (76th), first down rate (78th), and most painfully in the bottom six WRs in targets (90th), broken/missed tackles (92nd), positive rate (92nd), points earned (94th), with dead last completion percentage and receiver ratings.
Optimistically, better QB play can only help the hope for a positive trend. With current expectations for Russell Wilson to be the starter, and his strengths as a deep ball thrower, here’s to hoping Jefferson can provide a resurgence in a deep target complimentary role he was able to provide earlier in his career in 2024.
One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it all pans out. Stay tuned for more studies coming soon.
