Buy Or Sell: The Steelers should decline RB Najee Harris’ fifth-year option.
Explanation: The salary cap jumped substantially, and it’s likely to do the same next year. Najee Harris’ fifth-year option price checks in at $6,790,000, and it’s guaranteed for 2025 the moment the Steelers exercise it. While he takes a beating, he is primarily productive through volume. Jaylen Warren is a more explosive and well-rounded player and one you may prefer to pay more.
Buy:
We need to be honest about Harris. He’s just not a dynamic runner. Any time he hits 20 yards feels like a minor miracle, ironic given that he recorded the fourth-most explosive runs in 2023. He had eight runs of 20-plus yards in 2023, but none of them gained more than 25 yards. Even his explosive gains are inefficient.
Harris is the first player in team history to rush for 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons. But he needed 17 games to reach that mark twice and never played in a 16-game season. He topped out at 1,200 yards as a rookie.
The reality is the Steelers increasingly turn to Jaylen Warren for many running back tasks. He is basically their passing-game running back now, whether it’s for blocking assignments or catching passes. They accept that he is a more complete player and also the more dynamic runner.
Sure, Harris is capable of having his great games, usually in the second half after wearing a defense down. But you can get another battering ram to pair with Warren for less. And quite possibly, you can re-sign Harris after the 2024 season for an extension worth less than his fifth-year value. You don’t have to lock yourself in at $6,790,000 now when you can tackle his contract in 2025. Passing on the option is not passing on the player’s future.
Sell:
Let’s start with Jaylen Warren. He has a long way to go before he proves he is a workhorse back. He benefits greatly from playing behind Najee Harris, one can easily argue. Just look at the Baltimore Ravens’ Gus Edwards. His efficiency plummeted in 2023 when forced to take on a larger role. Granted, he scored as many touchdowns (13) as he did in his first four seasons combined. But his yards per carry and success rate dropped off and he fumbled three times.
Harris and Warren are a tandem. You want to keep them together. Under $7 million is not a sultan’s ransom to pay, if we’re being honest. The truth is the running back market is affordable these days because it’s devalued. Harris’ play merits that price in an offense that is likely to rely heavily on the run game. And he should play his best in 2023 in Arthur Smith’s offense with an improved offensive line.
With the Steelers’ 2023 season in the rearview mirror following a disappointing year that came up short in the playoffs once again, it’s time to start asking more questions. Questions about the team’s future in 2024 and beyond. Questions about The Standard.
The rookie class of a year ago was on the whole impressive, but they need to step up into staple starters in 2024. And they likely need a strong influx of talent in both free agency and in the 2024 NFL draft yet again. In addition to a revisitation of the coaching staff.
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
