The Pittsburgh Steelers have decided that Arthur Smith will be their new offensive coordinator and, at least on the surface, that decision isn’t overly surprising based on what President Art Rooney II and head coach Mike Tomlin both said in their end-of-season media sessions. With Smith now in the fold, the Steelers are probably hoping to have the kind of offensive production that the former Atlanta Falcons head coach had in 2019 and 2020 when he was the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.
While Smith’s three seasons in Atlanta with the Falcons were very forgettable from an offensive perspective, the reason he likely got that job in the first place was based on the results he had with the Titans as their offensive coordinator.
In his two seasons combined as the Titans offensive coordinator, Smith oversaw a unit that ranked in the top-five league-wide when it comes to several advance metrics that are rooted in expected points added and success rate percentages. If you want to check out these stats for yourself, you can do so here.
Now, Smith’s time in Tennessee obviously included him having Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, Derrick Henry at running back and A.J. Brown at wide receiver. Those two seasons were Tannehill’s first two in Tennessee and they included him throwing 55 touchdown passes with just 13 interceptions and 6,561 yards in 28 total regular season games. As for Henry, well, you all probably remember that he rushed for 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns in those two seasons. Wow!
In 2019, the Titans ranked 12th overall in the NFL in average total yards per game (362.68). Within that, Tennessee’s offense ranked fourth overall in the NFL in average yards per play (6.12). Those averages in 2019 were obviously bolstered by the team’s running game as the offense averaged a third best 138.9 yards on the ground per game and 5.00 yards per running play, also third-best that season.
While the Titans passing game ranked 21st overall in 2019 in average yards per game through the air (223.9), their 8.00 yards per play was tops in the NFL. It should be noted, however, that the Titans had the worst sacks per pass attempt average in the NFL in 2019 at 12.5 percent. In total, Tennessee quarterbacks that year were sacked 56 times.
As for the 2020 season, the Titans ranked tied for second in the NFL in average total yards per game (396.4). The unit’s 6.15 yards per play average was good for fourth best in the NFL in 2020. Obviously, the Titans running game played a huge part in that once again. On the ground that season, Henry and company averaged 168.1 yards per game and 5.16 yards per running play. That ranked the offense second overall league-wide in both of those statistical categories.
The Titans passing game in 2020 wasn’t as robust as it was in 2019 as the offense ranked 23rd overall in average passing yards per game (228.3) and seventh overall in average yards per passing play (7.53). The sack rate per pass attempt did go down, however, in 2020 at 5.15 percent, which was ranked tenth overall.
In those two combined seasons that Smith was the Titans offensive coordinator, the offense managed to rank 15th overall in explosive passing plays of 20 yards or longer. The offense registered 102 such explosive passing plays in those two seasons.
As you would probably imagine, the Titans fared well in explosive running plays of 10 yards or longer in those two seasons. 133 in total, which was good for second overall in the NFL when combining 2019 and 2020. By the way, the Titans also totaled 34 runs of 20 yards or longer in those two combined seasons and that was good for second-best in the NFL for that span as well.
Let’s not forget about points, the most important stat of them all. In 2019, the Titans averaged 25.1 points per game, tenth-best in the NFL that season. It got even better in 2020 as the Titans averaged 30.7 points per game that season, good for fourth-best in the NFL. A 5.6 points per game increase from 25.1 is nothing to sneeze about.
As not to steal all of the thunder that our own Alex Kozora has in store for readers in a forthcoming post or posts, I will remind everyone that Smith’s offenses the last five seasons have been based heavily around zone concepts in the running game. Additionally, and as previously mentioned in other recent posts on the site, Smith chose to use heavier personnel groupings on offense his past five seasons and that means a low usage of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR). I think we can expect that to continue in Pittsburgh but hopefully with Smith implementing a higher percentage of gap runs than he ever has before in a single season.
I should also point out that Smith’s two seasons in Tennessee as the Titans offensive coordinator include low percentages of shotgun usage. Smith also hasn’t been afraid to use play action over the course of the last five seasons. Implementing lower shotgun percentages and higher play action percentages in Pittsburgh would be a welcome sight. That said, I want to see it happen to believe it, especially if Kenny Pickett is the Steelers quarterback in 2024.
Obviously, Smith had a very experienced quarterback in Tennessee in the form of Tannehill and seemed to get the best out of him in those two seasons. Additionally, having a thoroughbred runner such as Henry certainly helped Smith’s overall offensive cause. Can the Steelers combination of running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren come remotely close to equaling what Henry meant to the Titans’ offenses in 2019 and 2020? They’ll probably need to for Smith’s offense to have success.
Even if Harris and Warren are able to accomplish what Smith’s run game goals are starting in 2024, the Steelers still will need to severely upgrade their play at the quarterback position. Based on what we have seen so far out of Pickett, it seems like a tall task to get him to the same level as Tannehill was in 2019 and 2020. Can QB Mason Rudolph get to that 2019-2020 Tannehill level should he be re-signed and ultimately get the starting job? I suppose that’s more believable at this point than it is with Pickett. Regardless, better overall QB play in 2024 is a necessity for the Steelers.
While the advanced metrics and rankings that Smith’s offenses posted with the Titans in 2019 and 2020 seem unachievable as we sit here in late January, even finishing within the top 10 in all of those key stats and averages would be a monumental achievement in his first season and might just be enough to get the 2024 Steelers their first playoff win since 2016, something that absolutely must be the goal.
In closing, Smith became the Falcons head coach in 2021 because of what he accomplished in two seasons with the Titans as their offensive coordinator. Quite honestly, he probably now has the offensive coordinator job in Pittsburgh because of those two seasons of success in Tennessee as well. Here’s to hoping we can remember the Steelers 2024 offense like we remember the Titans’ offenses of 2019 and 2020, or at least somewhere in the neighborhood of those two seasons.
