The news of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff matchup (and even being postseason bound) is still fresh. Sunday’s game against the Buffalo Bills is six days away and I promise we’ll talk about it from every angle possible. But off the top, big picture for this big game, here’s a sampling of some of the biggest storylines from both teams.
Pittsburgh’s Storylines
Replacing T.J. Watt
Assuming he needs replaced, that is. Though the team hasn’t officially commented on Watt’s status and the MRI that revealed a “best case scenario,” it’s still unlikely Watt will suit up this weekend. Even if his Watt-DNA allows him to give it a go, he won’t be on anything close to a normal snap count, leaving the Steelers to replace the bulk of his reps.
The good news is Pittsburgh has far better depth to address the loss compared to a season ago. Veteran Markus Golden and rookie Nick Herbig have played well this year, combining for seven sacks. The Steelers may also get creative with their “safe” pressure looks, recently sending inside linebackers and dropping EDGE rushers into coverage at a much higher rate than normal. Balancing pressure and contain of QB Josh Allen will be key and Pittsburgh won’t win without a consistent pass rush. They have a week to make the best of a bad situation.
Notable Injuries
Watt aside, the silver lining is Pittsburgh could have several players returning for the postseason. The biggest is FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, declaring his return for the Wild Card round following Saturday’s win over Baltimore. Missing three-and-a-half games due to a knee injury, the latter half of Fitzpatrick’s season has been marred by injury. But his return puts a star back onto the field and allows flexibility with Patrick Peterson, who could float around the defense more often while picking up slot corner snaps.
Damontae Kazee’s suspension is officially over while S Trenton Thompson could also return from a neck injury. Their roles and the Steelers’ division of labor at safety is unclear but they finally have a healthy group of players, even if someone like Eric Rowe remains a starter.
Mason Rudolph’s Sustainability…And His Future
A month ago, Mason Rudolph was the Steelers’ third-string quarterback. Now, he’s poised to start his first playoff game. He’s been on one heck of a run and is a central reason why Pittsburgh’s in the playoffs to begin with. It would be a shock if Mike Tomlin turned back to Kenny Pickett, setting Rudolph up to start his fourth game of the season.
This will be his toughest task. On the road against the fourth-ranked Bills defense that allowed more than 25 points just twice all season. For as much focus as Josh Allen and company gets, Buffalo’s defense is really good. A pending free agent, Rudolph has already built up a ton of value. But if he can pull off the upset against the red-hot Bills? Some NFL team is going to back up the Brinks truck.
The William & Mary Matchup
More of a storyline than a tangible impact, this one has been mentioned in previous Steelers-Bills games. Still, everything is heightened in the postseason. Head coaches Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott aren’t just William & Mary grads, they were once teammates together in college. Now, they’ll look to knock the other out of the playoffs on Sunday afternoon.
Since being hired in 2017, McDermott holds the edge over Tomlin, 3-1 in their four regular-season matchups. Tomlin will look to win his first playoff game since 2016 while McDermott’s Bills will be considered a Super Bowl sleeper.
Joey Porter Jr. On Stefon Diggs
Getting back to the on-field action, expect rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. to shadow WR Stefon Diggs throughout this game. Buffalo isn’t deep at wide receiver, especially if WR Gabe Davis (knee) misses this game, and Diggs is easily its top target. His numbers have cooled off after a great start to the year and I don’t want to be dismissive of the Bills’ other weapons like WR Khalil Shakir, who led the team last night with 106 receiving yards. But Porter will get a taste of the playoffs in his first year and he’ll be tested in this one by Diggs, a tremendous route runner and savvy veteran.
Buffalo’s Storylines
How Good (And How Bad) Will Josh Allen Be?
There’s no question QB Josh Allen is one of the most physically gifted players in football. When he’s at his best, no game plan is going to stop him. But he seems to miss as often as he hits, creating inconsistent results. Though he made a handful of spectacular plays Sunday night against Miami, he tossed two interceptions, lost a fumble, and made a poor decision at the end of the first half that left Buffalo empty-handed.
In last year’s meeting, Allen was nearly flawless, routing the Steelers’ defense. The ratio of good-to-bad will determine the outcome of this one. Pittsburgh’s defense will allow its share of big plays, but it can create splash, too. A couple of turnovers might swing this game.
Will Weather Impact The Game?
Bundle up. Kickoff is shaping up to be a frozen tundra. The current forecast projects a high of 26 with winds between 15 to 25 miles per hour, putting the wind chill close to zero. Will passing games be impacted by the elements, eliminating the deep ball? Will a sudden gust of wind blow a kick wide of the uprights?
Forecasts can still change (it’s also worth mentioning snow is projected to roll in Sunday night, if that timeline bumps up a couple hours, the weather is really going to become a storyline) but this Wild Card game might be a battle between the Bills, Steelers, and Mother Nature.
Something’s Gotta Give, Someone’s Gotta Lose
The Bills have won five-straight games. The Steelers have won their last three. Both teams once sat at .500, fired their offensive coordinator midseason and rallied down the stretch for a playoff surge, not locking up their spots until the final day of the regular season.
Someone’s streak – and season – will come to an end. The odds favor Buffalo winning this one but Pittsburgh loves being the underdog.
Notable Injuries
The Bills beat the Dolphins Sunday night but left with a couple of notable injuries. Speedster WR Gabe Davis, who torched Pittsburgh for a 98-yard touchdown last season, left midway through the game with a knee injury. His status for the weekend is unclear.
Defensively, LB Tyrel Dodson went down with a shoulder injury while CB Rasul Douglas hurt his knee. And they came into the game long without CB Tre White and ILB Matt Milano though the Bills’ defense has remained stout despite their absences. With a Sunday game, Buffalo won’t release its first official injury report until Wednesday and isn’t dealing with any new injuries to the severity and consequence of Pittsburgh losing Watt. Still, these are situations to watch.
