The Pittsburgh Steelers’ focus is on Saturday at 4:30. That’s when they take the field to kick off Week 18, their game against the Baltimore Ravens the first of the NFL’s final weekend. But even if they handle their business and push a two-game winning streak to three, it might not be until the wee hours of Sunday night that they know their playoff standing. If there even is one.
As we laid out in our playoff paths post, there are several scenarios in which Pittsburgh can make the postseason. Of the most likely and simplest, a Steelers win over the Ravens means all they’d need is for one of the two to happen:
– Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans
– Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins
Or, and this is a little more out there, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans tie in their Saturday nightcap, which would put Pittsburgh in even before Sunday’s games kick off.
We know all the ways they can get in. But what are the ways they can be eliminated? A loss, obviously, would toughen up that path. Falling to Baltimore means Pittsburgh would need the Jaguars to lose and the Denver Broncos to beat the Las Vegas Raiders to make the playoffs (also, the Colts and Texans can’t tie). Not that improbable but it would take a lot of doing.
Let’s be optimistic and assume Pittsburgh wins. A Jacksonville loss at 1 PM on Sunday would do the trick and lessen the wait and angst. But even if the Jaguars can knock off the Titans, and they’re likely to get QB Trevor Lawrence back, the Steelers still have hope. Their last option is for Buffalo to fall to Miami. Given the stakes of that game, the AFC East on the line, the NFL smartly made that Game No. 272, the Sunday night contest and final one of the 2023 campaign.
While it’s possible Pittsburgh is in by that point, it’s just as likely Steelers fans will be watching this contest as closely as Bills and Dolphins fans. The final game of the year could decide Pittsburgh’s fate, needing a Buffalo loss if the Steelers win and they don’t get the help needed up until that point.
It’s a similar scenario to 2021. Sitting at 7-7-1 with two regular-season games left, Pittsburgh rattled off two wins against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, the latter in OT, and moved to 9-7-1. But they weren’t in the playoffs yet. They had to wait until the night game, Las Vegas against Los Angeles, and hope both teams didn’t tie. If they did, Pittsburgh would be out and the Raiders and Chargers would be in. Though those odds seemed impossible, it nearly occurred. It took a Daniel Carlson 47-yard field goal as time expired to avoid a tie and award a winner, sending Vegas and Pittsburgh into the playoffs at the same time.
All of that is to say this. If Pittsburgh wins, it’s going to be a long weekend. Despite being the first game of the finale, they might not know if they’re in or out of the playoffs until the last game of the year wraps up. The only thing that’ll be longer is if the Steelers lose, wind up eliminated, and pack up for a lengthy offseason.
