How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
How do you replace T.J. Watt? One man at a time.
Though Mike Tomlin’s mantra is “next man up,” replacing someone like Watt requires more than one person. It’ll take the entire team, the outside linebackers filling his literal spot and the rest of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense.
“It’s not gonna be a one-man job in terms of replacing T.J.,” Tomlin said via the team’s YouTube channel Tuesday afternoon during his weekly press conference. “Just like I stood before you and said similar things when Cam Heyward missed a block of games. It is gonna be a committee approach. Even in doing so, we better strengthen our output in other areas because T.J. is one of a kind. But that’s ball. There’s an attrition component to it.”
Losing Watt is a massive blow. The stats tell that story, Pittsburgh 1-10 in games when he doesn’t play, its pass rush going invisible after Watt tore his pec in Week One last year. But the difference compared to a year ago is far better depth to fill Watt’s shoes. Veteran Markus Golden and rookie Nick Herbig combined for seven sacks this season, both putting on quality tape. Neither are the caliber of player Watt is but it’s a stronger-l0oking group than Malik Reed, Jamir Jones, and others they had a year ago, something Tomlin admitted.
“We’ve got depth at that position. That’s why we went out and thoughtfully acquired Marcus Golden. That’s why we drafted Herbig. We’re as deep at that position as we’ve been in some time,” he said. “We’re comfortable with the quality of depth. [Kyron] Johnson has had a helmet for the last number of weeks, although his contributions have been primarily on special teams.”
Elevated three times before being signed to the 53-man roster, Johnson has become a core special teamer for the Steelers, filling special teams snaps that can’t be given to veterans like Golden or inside linebackers like Myles Jack. He’s logged just one defensive snap across six games, the final one of the regular-season against Baltimore, rushing with his hand down from Watt’s spot on the left side. It’s unlikely he’ll see many defensive snaps against the Bills but could pick up a handful of reps.
But it won’t just be the outside linebackers asked to step up. The rest of the defense will have to produce big plays. The Steelers’ defensive line will have to create more pressure. Larry Ogunjobi has been playing better in recent weeks while Keeanu Benton has gotten pressure, narrowly missing out on a handful of sack opportunities. Cam Heyward looks healthier than he did after initially returning from his groin injury and will need to collapse the pocket around Bills QB Josh Allen, flushing him out into the outside linebackers’ arms.
The Steelers could also utilize more “safe” pressures of creative four-man rushes they were calling more frequently even prior to Watt getting hurt, often sending either an off-ball linebacker or nickel corner, while the secondary will have to step up and potentially cover for longer. Their need to also create splash plays will increase, knowing the Steelers’ pass rush won’t be as significant.
Allen is a top-tier threat but prone to making as many negative plays as positive ones. Inducing pressure will be key in creating those mistakes and turnovers. Buffalo has struggled against heavy blitzes, Cover 0 rushes, including throwing a pick in Sunday’s finale against Miami against such a rush. Miscommunication between Allen and the receiver led to a Dolphins red zone takeaway.
If Allen puts up a clean sheet Sunday, zero turnovers, the Steelers won’t win. Though the numbers are intuitive, here’s his 2023 record by turnovers.
Zero Turnovers: 3-0
One Turnover: 7-3
Two or More Turnovers: 1-3
His lone win while having two or more turnovers did not come until beating the Dolphins on Sunday night, a narrow 21-14 victory. That’s the method to Pittsburgh keeping things close. Create splash, deny a chance for points, give the offense a short field. If the Steelers accomplish that, they’ll be in this game until the end, even with Watt watching from the sidelines.
