Senior NFL Head Coach
Mike Tomlin is now the senior NFL head coach with Bill Belichick and New England parting ways. Pundits speculated about Tomlin’s future as head coach in Pittsburgh before the Steelers ended up making their 11th playoff appearance since 2007. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh lost its fifth consecutive playoff game to the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers’ last playoff win was an 18-16 victory at Kansas City in the 2016 Divisional Round.
A segment of Steeler Nation is frustrated that Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons over 17 years (the Steelers’ streak of non-losing seasons goes back to 2003, the year before Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger) is hailed when some see it as an indicator of mediocrity.
Pittsburgh has a long-established record of building through the draft. But first year General Manager Omar Khan signed several free agents to fill holes in the roster last offseason. One of the challenges of consistently challenging for playoff appearances is missing the top picks in the draft year after year.
Top 10 Draft Picks and Playoff Appearances
I’ve put together a table comparing the numbers of top 10 draft picks and playoff appearances by teams since Tomlin became the Steelers’ head coach in 2007:
| Team | Top 5 Picks | Picks 6 to 10 | Total | Last Top 5 Pick | Last 6 to 10 | Won Division | Playoff Appearances | SB’s | Head Coaches |
| NFC East | |||||||||
| NY Giants | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2022 | 2022 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Washington | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2020 | 2007 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Philadelphia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2016 | 2023 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 5 |
| Dallas | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2016 | 2012 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | 9 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 4 | ||||
| NFC North | |||||||||
| Detroit | 6 | 3 | 9 | 2022 | 2021 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| Chicago | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2017 | 2023 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2012 | 2014 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| Green Bay | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2006 | 2009 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | 18 | 17 | 27 | 1 | ||||
| NFC South | |||||||||
| Atlanta | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2021 | 2023 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| Carolina | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2023 | 2022 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2019 | 2014 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| New Orleans | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2006 | 2008 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | 22 | 17 | 24 | 4 | ||||
| NFC West | |||||||||
| LA Rams | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2016 | 2015 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Arizona | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2019 | 2023 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| San Francisco | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2021 | 2018 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| Seattle | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2023 | 2022 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | 12 | 25 | 17 | 28 | 7 | ||||
| AFC East | |||||||||
| NY Jets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2022 | 2022 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Miami | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2020 | 2021 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| Buffalo | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2014 | 2019 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| New England | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1994 | 2008 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 1 |
| 10 | 13 | 23 | 17 | 25 | 6 | ||||
| AFC North | |||||||||
| Cleveland | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2018 | 2020 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| Cincinnati | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2021 | 2017 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1970 | 2019 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 1 |
| Baltimore | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2000 | 2016 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 32 | 4 | ||||
| AFC South | |||||||||
| Jacksonville | 8 | 6 | 14 | 2022 | 2020 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Houston | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2023 | 2007 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2017 | 2016 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Indianapolis | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2023 | 2018 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 16 | 11 | 27 | 17 | 25 | 1 | ||||
| AFC West | |||||||||
| Las Vegas | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2019 | 2023 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Kansas City | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2013 | 2017 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Denver | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2018 | 2021 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| LA Chargers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2016 | 2020 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | 7 | 19 | 17 | 24 | 5 | ||||
| Total | 85 | 85 | 170 | 136 | 212 | 32 | 170 | ||
Table Information from Pro Football Reference
Not All Divisions Are Equal
The NFL endeavors to ensure parity within the NFL. Draft order and some scheduling are designed to give weaker teams a chance to get stronger. New England dominated the AFC East recently, winning the division 12 times since 2007. The Patriots fielded very competitive teams but were aided by three relatively weak teams to play twice a year. Contrast with the AFC North with three competitive teams for most of the period and 32 playoff appearances.
But the most important metric is Super Bowl appearances. New England has all six Super Bowl appearances by AFC East teams. Only the NFC West has more with seven, and all four teams have at least one appearance.
Organizational Competence Counts
In theory, the teams with the most top-10 draft picks should emerge as the most successful ones. But it doesn’t always work out that way. Jacksonville (14), Cleveland (9), and Las Vegas (8) have the most top-10 draft picks since 2007, but only have a combined seven appearances in the playoffs. New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh have only selected one player in the top 10 since 2007 and have appeared in 10 Super Bowls over the same period. The Patriots stand alone, but organizational competence a crucial factor in overall team success. In fact, those same three teams have the longest drought in having a top-five pick: Baltimore in 2000, New England in 1994, and Pittsburgh way back in 1970.
Every NFL team has had at least two playoff appearances since 2007. But Cleveland (1989), Las Vegas (2002), and the Jets (2002) have not won their division in more than 17 years. It is also notable that New England and Pittsburgh are the only teams with one head coach over the entire span. That changed in 2024. Baltimore and Cincinnati have only had two head coaches.
The four teams with the most head-coach churn are Jacksonville (eight), Miami (nine), Cleveland (nine), and Las Vegas (10). They have combined for 11 playoff appearances and zero Super Bowls in the last 17 years. The head coach column includes interim head coaches.
CONCLUSION
Only New England (six) and Kansas City (three) have more than two Super Bowl appearances since 2007. That will change if San Francisco defeats Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. Pittsburgh is tied with six other teams with two Super Bowl appearances. New England and Green Bay have the most playoff appearances (13) since 2007. Pittsburgh is tied with Baltimore, Kansas City and Seattle with 11.
But this is just a snapshot. The chart only shows cumulative information and does not indicate trends. For example, a team that has had a lot of coaching turnover may have settled on a head coach who will remain in place for the near future. Tomlin will coach the Steelers in 2024 and, depending on a contract extension, for at least several more years to come. Black and Gold fans will not be satisfied until the Steelers begin winning playoff games, and 2024 is as good a season as any to begin that trend. Here we go.
Your Song Selection
I always like to include a bit of music. The thought of losing Tomlin as the Steelers’ head coach created debate within Steeler Nation. Some believed it was time for a change. Others supported a coach who has yet to suffer a losing season while with the Steelers. But we all agree that we want the Steelers to be competitive enough to make another Super Bowl run. Here is Lately performed by Stevie Wonder.
