The most likely outcome following next month’s NFL Honors is Joey Porter Jr. and T.J. Watt take home nothing but a league-sponsored swag bag. Both are finalists for two major awards, Porter Defensive Rookie of the Year, Watt Defensive Player of the Year, and neither are considered favorites.
But choose one of them who has the better chance of winning and it’s not Watt. Despite him leading the NFL in sacks – again – and dominating in nearly every statistical category, Porter has the better chance to win.
We’ve laid out the case with Watt before. Not saying it’s right but Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett is the frontrunner. It’s not even clear if Watt will finish in second place. It’s possible Dallas Cowboys’ LB Micah Parsons or even Las Vegas Raiders’ DE Maxx Crosby finish ahead of Watt when the final ranking are revealed shortly after the award is announced. Right now, Watt finishing on the podium might be as good as it gets.
Which leaves Porter. The battle for DROY is far more open than DPOY with the favorite for this award far less clear. Throughout the regular season, Philadelphia Eagles DT Jalen Carter appeared to be the favorite and he had a strong first year, finishing with six sacks. But his prospects of winning the award cooled off towards year’s end and there’s plenty of competition around him. Houston Texans EDGE Will Anderson recorded more sacks, seven of them, while Los Angeles Rams’ DT Kobie Turner beat them both with nine.
Then there’s the corners, Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon and Porter. Witherspoon the higher draft pick with some highlight reel plays but he, like Porter, only intercepted one pass (though it was a 97-yard pick-six). And Porter felt more recognized this year, playing out East in a larger market with more attention on the Steelers than Seahawks.
Point being, this race could go a lot of different ways. There is no consensus pick in the way Garrett seems to be for Defensive Player of the Year. Ultimately, the odds are well below 50 percent Porter takes home the award. It’ll probably go to Carter. But Porter has a better chance than Watt, even if the most probable outcome is both walk out of that building empty-handed.
