Today I wanted to dive deeper into explosive plays (20 yards or longer), of course, an important facet of team success. This article will look at the impact of explosive plays on scoring drives, including the rate of explosive plays that resulted in touchdown drives, and the rate of explosive plays that were touchdowns.
Here are the results through Week 17 on offense:
On the top right of the chart, we see teams that had a high percentage of explosive plays that resulted in touchdown drives, along with a high rate of explosive touchdowns. Several teams that have already made the playoffs, or are fighting for that privilege in the season finale land above or close to the mean in each.
An extreme outlier on the bottom right is the Kansas City Chiefs, with the reigning Super Bowl Champions ranking next to last in the rate of explosive plays that were TDs (6.8-percent), but much better in rate of explosive plays resulting in touchdown drives (55.9-percent, ninth).
The NFL’s best in each to date are the Miami Dolphins’ 24.5 rate of explosive plays that were touchdowns, and Baltimore having 62 percent of their explosive plays result in touchdown drives. Stellar marks, and a factor to why the Ravens have the luxury of resting starters against the Steelers in the finale.
Though Pittsburgh is still in the hunt, we see they are a far cry away from the mean in explosive play rates that resulted in touchdown drives, at an abysmal 34 percent that ranks 31st in the league. For more context, the league average for explosive play touchdown drives is 49.7 percent, while explosive touchdown percentages are at 14.6. The Steelers encouragingly come in at 15.1 percent in the latter, above the mean and 14th league-wide.
In totality, Pittsburgh’s offense has 53 explosive plays (T-22nd) and eight explosive touchdowns (T-15th). The latter is encouraging compared to the rest of the league, but come at a low frequency of a team’s total plays. QB Kenny Pickett threw for three in Weeks Two-Five, including a double explosive (40 yards or more) to WR George Pickens, along with two bombs of 70-plus yards to Pickens and Calvin Austin III way back in Weeks Two and Three.
QB Mitch Trubisky had two explosive touchdown passes, one of 25 yards to WR Diontae Johnson in Week 14, and a 22-yarder to Pickens in Week Eight. Another explosive touchdown came from RB Jaylen Warren, a whopping 71-yarder in Week 11. Most recently, QB Mason Rudolph provided two in his first start in Week 16, on the two triple explosives (60 yards or more) to Pickens.
While there were no explosive touchdowns last game, total explosive plays increased to seven in Week 17, and there was an explosive play on all three touchdown drives. Seven explosives and three touchdown drives were each season highs. That sheds light on what can happen when successful in these aspects of the game, with Pittsburgh’s nice results the last two weeks aiding their victories, an encouraging trend that will hopefully continue on Saturday.
Let’s see what this looks like for defenses:
Expectedly, we see several strong teams on the top right once again, similar to the results on offense. An outlier is the Philadelphia Eagles, a playoff team that lands on the bottom left. They have a 66.7 rate of explosive plays allowed on touchdown drives (T-30th), and an 18.3 rate on explosive play touchdowns (25th), the lowest marks by far of teams that are already in the playoffs.
Baltimore holds a top rank on defense as well, limiting the opposition to the lowest percentage of explosive play touchdowns (5.6 percent), impressively. The Las Vegas Raiders lead the league in rate of explosive plays that resulted in touchdown drives, at only 36.2 percent.
The Steelers’ defense has had its issues, but encouragingly landed above the mean in both, with a 41.4 rate of explosive plays that ended in touchdowns (seventh), and allowed an 11.4 rate of explosive play touchdowns (ninth). Being top ten in both is rather encouraging and gives specific context to the bend don’t break reputation they’ve been labeled as in 2023.
This point is furthered when considering Pittsburgh’s 70 total explosive plays allowed, which ties for 29th in the NFL, the “bend” element, and allowed just eight explosive touchdowns (T-13th) “don’t break”. The latter, along with their top ten ranks on the visual emphasizes the ultimate goal of limiting the impact on the scoreboard on these plays in comparison to the league.
Adding in the fact the Steelers’ defense is the NFL’s best in red zone interceptions, and fifth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, the unit has been great in these situations in 2023.
Eight explosive touchdowns ironically match the total for the Steelers offense. One came against the run, way back in the season opener, a triple 65-yarder to 49ers Christian McCaffrey. Five of them came from Week 3-10, all passing touchdowns of 30-plus yards.
Then the Pittsburgh Steelers defense tightened up with only two explosive touchdowns allowed in the last seven games, in Weeks 14 and 16. The former was a painful loss, and an example of the injury bug at LB and S allowing a TE touchdown, but emphasizes how encouraging this recent span has been missing several starters on the back seven.
Most recently in Week 16 was a blip on the radar, allowing a quadruple 80-yard touchdown to Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins, the only touchdown allowed in the dominant 34-11 win.
Things have trended positively for the Pittsburgh Steelers at the right time to close the 2023 season. Hopefully, it closes out with a bang, ending things on a high note with a win against Baltimore. The Ravens are very strong in these terms but will be resting starters including star QB Lamar Jackson since claiming the NFL’s best record (13-3) and a top postseason stake.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
