Leading into Sunday’s Wild Card Round matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills, there’s a lot of excitement and anticipation, at least from the perspective of the Steelers, regarding their chances of going on the road and pulling off an upset.
That excitement and anticipation exists not just because of the weather expected at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo Sunday, but because of the style of football the Steelers have played in the last month of the season. They are leaning heavily on running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to run the football and control the game behind an improving offensive line. That matches up well with a Buffalo defense that has had issues stopping the run as of late.
Defensively, Pittsburgh has forced quite a few turnovers and gotten after the passer as well in the last month. Though they will be without star outside linebacker T.J. Watt Sunday due to a knee injury, the Steelers still match up well with Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen, who turned the ball over 23 times this season to lead the NFL and plays a bit reckless.
Styles make fights, as head coach Mike Tomlin likes to say, and the styles between the two teams should make for a good fight in the Wild Card Round.
ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky doesn’t believe so, though. Appearing on the “One Bills Live” podcast with former Bills wide receiver and special teams ace Steve Tasker and Bills Insider Chris Brown, Orlovsky stated that the Steelers’ defense isn’t capable of holding down the Bills’ offense, should Buffalo play a mature, smart game.
“This is very simple for me. This team in Pittsburgh, you tip your hat to them, unbelievable that they are in, and the job that Mike Tomlin has done,” Orlovsyy said, according to audio via the show’s podcast page on Spotify. “If you don’t hold the ball as a passer, and if you don’t become reckless with the ball in the red zone, this defense isn’t capable of holding this offense down. This is a mature game by everybody on this offense.”
Playing a mature game, not holding onto the football and not being reckless with the ball, especially in the red zone, has been a challenge for Allen all season. For as great of a quarterback as he is, he’s prone to making some absolutely bone-headed decisions with the football, aiming to be aggressive. It’s cost the Bills at times.
It nearly cost Buffalo in Week 18 on the road against the Miami Dolphins. Allen was very loose and reckless with the football in the first half and had some awful turnovers, keeping points off the board for the Bills.
Now, in the Wild Card Round he’ll face a defense that is getting back its two starting safeties in star Minkah Fitzpatrick and dependable veteran Damontae Kazee, giving Pittsburgh a big boost.
Though the Steelers have been decimated by injuries defensively, leading to practice squad pieces in linebacker Myles Jack and safety Eric Rowe playing important roles down the stretch, the Steelers have patched things together and got great production from the defense in the final month of the season. They allowed just 11, 23 and 10 points in the final three weeks of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens, forcing six turnovers in the final three games — all wins.
With Allen turning the ball over at an alarming rate, there’s an opportunity there for the Steelers, especially if they can run the football and control the line of scrimmage and the clock on the road. Allen could get reckless with the football and make mistakes, playing right into Tomlin and the Steelers’ hands.
If he doesn’t do that though, Orlovsky believes the Steelers have no shot at slowing down the Bills.
“Again, I don’t wanna minimize ’em. They’re an NFL defense that’s in the playoffs, but if you don’t give them stuff, they’re not good enough to stop this offense,” Orlovsky said regarding the Steelers’ defense.
On the season, Pittsburgh generated 27 takeaways, which was good for fifth in the NFL. They had a turnover differential of plus-11 on the season, which was good for second-best in the NFL. On top of all that, the Steelers’ defense allowed just 19.1 points per game on the year, good for sixth-best in the NFL.
Sure, they thrive on turnovers, but they also did a great job of getting stops when they needed them most, especially without the turnovers. Buffalo has a great offense, but the poor conditions Sunday in Buffalo will play a factor in slowing down the high-powered offense, too.
