Encouragingly, the Pittsburgh Steelers offense took a huge step, namely putting points on the scoreboard for the much needed 34-11 victory. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple notes. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, two throwaways were removed.
QB Mason Rudolph got the Week 16 start, with Kenny Pickett sidelined (ankle injury) and Mitch Trubisky benched following a rough showing. Rudolph facilitated a great performance on offense, going 17/27 (63 percent). He threw for 290 yards and a great 124.0 rating, a season-best for any Steelers QB, along with two touchdowns to George Pickens, and the duo accounting for all three of Pittsburgh’s explosive plays.
Rudolph made smart decisions and took care of the football without an interception, and also provided a third-down scramble in the red zone, setting up RB Najee Harris’ rushing touchdown. Pittsburgh was thankfully strong situationally, converting 50 percent on third downs (7-of-14) and 67 percent in the red zone (2-of-3), after prior season averages of 34.7 percent on third down and 46.7 in the red zone.
Benefited from a much better team effort all-around, including a fantastic 182 in YAC (113 from Pickens), but Rudolph’s role in that is hard to ignore. It will be interesting to see who is named the starting quarterback for Week 17 against the Seahawks.
Let’s examine the 25 charted passes further, with the number of throws at each pass distance for Week 16:
#1. 10-15 air-yards: 28-percent. Refreshingly, a new most frequent air-yardage in the intermediate range. This started right away, hitting Pickens decisively at ten air yards on a slant on the first play of the game, making a nice cut to elude the DB and take it to the house. Rare quadruple explosive 86-yarder, the longest first-quarter TD in franchise history. Pittsburgh’s offense needed to start faster, ka-boom.
On the following drive, Rudolph eyed the check down to influence the defense, then worked back to the left for a great sideline throw to WR Allen Robinson II, a comeback route with great body control, and a toe-tap catch for 14 yards. Big play to the red zone, setting up a second consecutive scoring drive to start the game.
Two-minute-drill before halftime, Rudolph showed good poise despite the blitz, including one of RB Jaylen Warren’s handful of stellar Week 16 blocks. The pass was low as the pocket collapsed (Tackles), with Pickens unable to corral it. The following play was excellent, a third and ten wow throw/catch by WR Diontae Johnson on the intermediate out route, just enough for the conversion despite tight coverage. Another intermediate out route with 56 seconds in the second quarter, this one high to Pickens, with a good effort to extend but no dice on this 12-air-yard incompletion.
Rudolph only threw twice in the fourth quarter, which was refreshing compared to sweating until the end normally. The final pass was a third and 12 (7:29 left), another catch to Robinson near the marker, but just short. Not detrimental though, with a FG extending the lead to the final score (34-11).
T-second. Behind-the-Line: 20-percent. Rudolph dispersed the ball to a variety of pass distances, with a four-way tie for second place. The first example was a second drive third and five, Rudolph taking what the defense gave him, checking down to Warren with great YAC for 18 yards.
While frustrations were limited, an early second-quarter RB screen (Warren) was an unfortunate play call on third and ten. It was a disastrous result with two free rushers, one tipping the pass, and TE Pat Freiermuth missing his block, allowing the loss of eight yards.
The following drive was backed up field position, hitting the open swing pass to Warren in the end zone, thankfully beating the LB to the sideline for nine yards. To start the third quarter, a first and ten screen featured better blocking, and a gain of six from Warren.
T-second. 0-5 air-yards: 20-percent. Pittsburgh was behind the chains far less, but two straight examples at this distance (bad holding call on T Dan Moore). Cincinnati played off on first and 20, covering the all-go routes well, and the inaccurate checkdown to Warren broken up. The following second and 20 was a plus-throw despite pressure (T Broderick Jones), a shallow-crosser to Johnson but limited YAC and only five yards.
A likely forgotten play amidst Pickens’ stellar day, catching the third and five stop-route just short of the sticks, but backward YAC leads to a fail (K Chris Boswell 50-yard FG for the 24-0 halftime lead). In the third quarter, Rudolph went under center play-action boot and displayed composure again, lobbing the pass over pressure wide-open in the flat to TE Darnell Washington with YAC for eight yards.
T-second. 5-10 air-yards: 20-percent. On drive two, Rudolph was decisive to Robinson (slot comeback), open against zone with good YAC and 12 yards. In the third quarter, Rudolph’s pass was a bit low on the out route, with WR Miles Boykin going down to catch it for six yards. Following the only sack of Rudolph (that he ran into), the DB undercut and broke up the intermediate out route to Johnson on third and 12.
T-second. Explosive: 20-percent. Second drive, second and ten, Rudolph wants WR Calvin Austin III on the go ball, but it’s underthrown (Moore-QB hit) and broken up on an unfortunate missed DPI call. Despite getting behind the chains before halftime (Moore-hold), the Rudolph-Pickens connection struck again with a great throw and wow toe-tap catch for the double explosive 44-yarder on third and 15.
Early third quarter, the third and two call is all-stops covered well, and Rudolph signals Austin to run deep on the scramble drill but overthrows incomplete. A highlight was third and one, an outstanding go ball right in the bucket to Pickens, a great stack and catch on the sideline, with explosive YAC and a forced missed tackle for their second touchdown connection. So exciting.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: 4-percent. Only one attempt, an unfortunate incompletion on an end-zone target to Johnson, with Rudolph taking the QB hit (Moore) and throwing out of bounds.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Great day for Rudolph, but the visual emphasizes Pittsburgh’s playmakers deserving a ton of credit as well. He went 2-for-5 on explosive air-yard passes, both completions to Pickens on third downs, including the second touchdown. At ten yards or more, 12-of-13 passes were to the sidelines (92.3 rate), going 5-for-12 (41.7 percent), and the lone pass between the numbers was the first Pickens’ slant touchdown. Efficient 11-for-12 at ten yards or less (91.7 percent), with YAC certainly aiding the improved passing offense.
Now for the heat maps for charted passes, then completions only:
Rudolph highly favored the left side of the field, with 17-of-25 charted throws (68 rate, 76.5 completion percentage). The first chart reemphasizes the lack of intermediate/explosive passing over the middle, the completions-only view highlights his longest air-yardage, the encouraging 44-yarder, and comparing the two visuals’ points to a lack of explosive connection to the right (longest-completion 11 yards).
Now, here are all 431 charted throws of 2023, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 34.6-percent. Previously 35.5-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 23.4-percent. Previously 23.6-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.1-percent. Previously 18.0-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 13.2-percent. Previously 12.3-percent.
#5. Explosive: Season 12.3-percent. Previously 11.8-percent.
#6. 15-20 air-yards: Season 11.1-percent. Previously 11.6-percent.
No rank changes. The biggest riser was 10-15 yards, along with explosives seeing a notable bump. The biggest faller was 0-5 air yards, normally the most common pass range. Smart aggression was so refreshing to see and hopefully continues.
Here are dots for 2023 charted throws, along with completion rates by distance:
PICKETT:
Behind-the-line: Season 51/58 (87.9-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 75/99 (75.8-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 52/75 (69.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent).
Explosive: Season 12/33 (36.4-percent).
TRUBISKY:
Behind-the-line: Season 12/14 (85.7-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 34/44 (77.3-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 15/20 (75-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 4-10 (40-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 5/13 (38.5-percent).
Explosive: Season 4/15 (26.7-percent).
RUDOLPH:
Behind-the-line: Season 6/6 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 5/6 (83.3-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 5/6 (83.3-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 4/8 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 0/1 (0-percent).
Explosive: Season 2/5 (40-percent).
While it’s a small sample size for Rudolph, his performance was a breath of fresh air that warrants serious consideration for more starts to close 2023. If so, I’ll include his heat maps with the other quarterbacks, like in previous articles. Personally, it’s hard to go away from what worked so well even if Pickett is healthy, and it will be interesting to monitor through the week in anticipation of Sunday’s challenge against Seattle.
Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
