The phrase “must-win game” often feels overused in professional sports, especially the NFL, where there is so little room for error and so few games compared to other spots to make up ground on mistakes.
Every game counts, and every player and team wants to win every game, period. They’re all must-win. Isn’t that the entire point of competition? To win?
All that said, Saturday’s 4:30 p.m. matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium between the Indianapolis Colts and the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers is a must-win game — for both teams — when it comes to the AFC playoffs.
Put simply, it is the most consequential game of the weekend from a playoff perspective, at least according to NFL.com and Pro Football Focus when looking at the playoff odds with a win and a loss.
For NFL.com, the Steelers enter the matchup with a 32% chance at the playoffs. Currently, Pittsburgh sits in the No. 6 seed and controls its own destiny, which is rather shocking considering the two losses in a five-day stretch to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots, which seemed to sink the season.
But win and they are in good shape. A win over the Colts would improve the Steelers’ playoff chances to 54%. A loss, unsurprisingly, would be catastrophic. The Steelers’ playoff odds would drop to just 14%. Like Lloyd Christmas says, so you’re telling me there’s a chance?
There is, but it’s slim if the Steelers lose Saturday.
“Saturday’s Steelers-Colts affair is arguably the most consequential game of the entire weekend when it comes to the AFC playoff picture,” NFL.com writes regarding the playoff odds and Week 15 matchups. “Because of the logjam of teams at 7-6, both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis would see their respective playoff probabilities sink with a loss this weekend.
“In fact, they have the two highest playoff leverages in the entire league in Week 15 (Colts, 43 percentage points; Steelers, 40 percentage points).”
To say this game carries all the weight in the world for both teams feels like a bit of an understatement. Though a loss wouldn’t eliminate either team from the playoffs, it would make the road to the postseason all the more difficult as either team would need serious help to get into the dance.
Win, continue to control your own destiny. Lose, you’re asking other teams for help. Not an envious spot to be in, either.
The stakes from NFL.com line up largely with PFF’s playoff odds, too. According to PFF, the Colts have the most playoff leverage at stake. A win over the Steelers would increase the Colts’ playoff odds to 66%; currently, Indianapolis has a 45% chance. A loss to the Steelers would drop the Colts’ playoff odds to 20%, putting 46% leverage on the line, one way or another.
For the Steelers, who currently sit at 32% playoff odds from PFF, a win over the Colts would boost their playoff odds to 56%, while a loss would drop their odds to 12%. That’s a playoff-odds leverage of 44% on Saturday.
Much is at stake. It’s a shame the Steelers got to this point after sitting at 7-4 and entering a five-day stretch with two games against two two-win teams. But they made their bed. Now they have to lay in it and figure things out.
The season is riding on it.
