Today I wanted to look at how pass defenses have fared through Week 14, using success rates by down, game halves, and weekly views as well. Let’s jump right in.
First, let’s look at early down success rates league wide (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
- First Down Passing Success = A pass that gains less than 40% of the needed yardage.
- Second Down Passing Success = A pass that gains less than 50% of the needed yardage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense lands on the bottom right, clearly above the league mean on first down. Their 53.4 first down success rate ranks impressively at fourth in the NFL. This is obviously the most frequent down, and teams are passing more often on the early down in today’s NFL as well. An encouraging truth amidst many issues in Pittsburgh.
Also, with the bevy of injuries this season, including S Minkah Fitzpatrick, DL Cameron Heyward, the inside linebacker room, and more. It’s a very impressive feat. The uncertain status of stud pass rushing duo T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will be important to monitor, both in the concussion protocol heading into Week 15, and are obviously an important factor in the pass defense results (Ed Note: since writing this, Watt has cleared the protocol).
Second down has been weaker though, with a below league average 50.3 success rate that ranks 19th. This is an unfortunate other side of the coin, considering this allows the opposition either the fresh set of downs, or be in manageable late down situations more often than not.
Speaking of which, let’s look at late downs, where third and fourth downs that do not pick up a first down are considered a success:
Here we see Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 14th on late down pass success rate, at 66-percent. Pittsburgh has fared well considering their second down result, just above league average and making improvements as a pass defense since the Week Six bye overall. The last two games have been hard to except though, including the pass defense, but hopefully they can finish out the year strong in this regard.
Here are the total success rates, now that we’ve seen the rates by down:
Overall, the Steelers defense impressively ranks eighth in the NFL in total passing success rate through Week 14. This will likely surprise many (higher than I expected as well). So, their strong mark largely comes from a top five first down success rate (fourth), with the biggest area for improvement on second down (19th), and tightening up more above league average on late downs (14th). Hopefully second down and beyond can trend closer to their great first down mark.
I was also curious to see how defenses have performed by half:
Last week against New England, Pittsburgh’s defense had a tale of two halves, allowing 21 points in the first half and none in the second. We see their season results in 2023 have been more even is success. The Steelers are one of eight defenses that are clearly above the mean in both halves. In the first half, the Steelers have a 53.9 success rate that ranks ninth, while their even better 58.4 success rate in the second half ranks seventh.
Game to game has surely had their ups and downs, but the laws of averages show they’ve become one of the more solid pass defenses in these terms as the season has worn on.
To wrap up, let’s look at a weekly breakdown for added context:
Looking by week, we see the overall improvement I eluded too earlier. Rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. has come on strong, earning his starting role in Week Eight. It’s no coincidence that this decision has contributed to the teams improved pass defense since.
Pittsburgh’s worst performance came in Week Four against Houston, with a rough 39.3-percent success rate, fourth-lowest of the week and 26th-worst in all of 2023 (412 defensive performances).
Outside of that game, an encouraging find is the Steelers defense has been at 50-percent or better in all other outings, with the league average on the season being 54.1. Their other games below league average (red line) include: San Francisco Week One (50-percent), Las Vegas Week Three (51-percent), Jacksonville Week Eight (50-percent), Cincinnati Week 12 (51.7-percent) and most recently New England Week 14 (53.3-percent). Three-of-five games below the line pre-bye (60-percent), 3-of-8 since (37.5-percent).
Through the first nine games, above the line equated to wins, and below meant losses, with the one exception being the Week Three win against Las Vegas. The last four games have been a different story. The Week 14 loss fits the bill, then winning against Cincinnati despite a below the line performance, but losses to Cleveland (13-10) and Arizona (24-10).
The latter was actually their best mark in pass success rate on the year (64-percent), topping five total games of 60-percent or higher: Tennessee Week Nine (63.4-percent, win), Los Angeles Rams Week Seven (61.3-percent, win), Cleveland Week 11 (61-percent, loss), and Cleveland again in Week Two (60.9-percent, win).
If Pittsburgh can clean up some of the self-inflicted wounds that have been so frustrating as of late, the team will hopefully reap the benefits of an improved pass defense throughout the 2023 season and get back in the win column. Here’s to hoping for just that, starting with their next opportunity on Saturday.
