November football, as is well known, is where the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. The weight of every game gets heightened.
That will be the case for the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday with a road trip to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12.
Just a few days after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers stare down another pivotal matchup, not only within the division but for AFC playoff purposes as well.
Currently, Pittsburgh is the seventh seed in the AFC, holding down the final Wild Card spot. But, depending on the result Sunday at Paycor Stadium, the playoff odds could change dramatically one way or another.
According to Pro Football Focus, Pittsburgh has the “most at stake” in Week 12 from a playoff standpoint.
Entering Week 12, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a 61% chance of making the playoffs. With a win, that number would jump to 76% in the AFC, which would be all but a guarantee at that point, though there would still be quite a bit of football left.
A loss to the Bengals would drop Pittsburgh’s playoff percentage to 39%. That’s a swing of 37%, giving the Steelers the most “leverage” in the league in Week 12, ahead of the New Orleans Saints at 36% in the NFC.
Sitting at 6-4 on the season, the Steelers find themselves narrowly ahead of the Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills, and Indianapolis Colts in playoff chances. However, the Texans are currently slotted in as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, having already defeated the Steelers back in Week Four, 30-6. Pittsburgh still has to play Indianapolis, too, so big games are ahead.
Cincinnati technically still remains in the playoff hunt in the AFC, but after losing star quarterback Joe Burrow for the season, the team’s playoff chances have plummeted. Pittsburgh can help put a nail in the coffin of the Bengals on the year with a win in Week 12, though they will see each other again in Week 16, two days before Christmas.
Though Pittsburgh sits in a relatively comfortable spot based on playoff percentage entering Week 12, a lot can — and will — change in the weeks ahead. It’s important for the Steelers to take care of business in a matchup they should absolutely win now that Burrow is out and Jake Browning will be making his first career start.
A win gives Pittsburgh more stability in the playoff picture. A loss would not only hurt in the division race, but would put them behind the 8-ball in the AFC playoff picture, too. A lot is at stake on Sunday.
