There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics. You can come up with some kind of statistic to support just about any position one could possibly take, but that in itself doesn’t make it valuable. They all rely on context—and when you’re dealing with probabilities, a bit of luck.
Fortunately for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’ve been one of the luckiest teams in the league this year, at least as measured by Net Win Probability Added metrics. Taking into consideration dropped interceptions, dropped passes by an opponent, kicks by an opponent, and fumbles by either team, the Steelers have broken favorably on the whole better than most teams.
Tom Bliss is a managing football operations data scientist for the NFL. He shared an updated ranking of the luckiest teams in the league through the first 10 weeks of the season on Twitter yesterday, noting that the luckiest play of the week was the Houston Texans benefitting from Cincinnati Bengals WR Tyler Boyd dropping a late go-ahead touchdown.
All of these statistics rely upon percentages. Of course. A drop is only a drop on a play in which a player is by rights expected to catch the pass, so failing to do so is quite unlucky. Missing a typically makable kick? Unlucky. Making a very difficult kick? Lucky. Recovering an unusual number of fumbles? Lucky. Interestingly, the Steelers were very lucky this time of last year as well despite being 2-6.
And the Steelers have been lucky particularly in the rate of recovery of fumbles this year, starkly in contrast to last season, at least on defense, when they recorded a shockingly few number of recoveries relative to fumbles forced. Their plus-31.2 percent win probability added on fumble recoveries was the third-highest in the league.
And they’ve also had the fourth-best luck in the dropped interception department at 24.0 percent. QB Kenny Pickett had a pass just this past Sunday against the Green Bay Packers that was initially ruled an interception before being overturned. The San Francisco 49ers’ Fred Warner should’ve had himself a pick-six back in the opener had he not dropped the ball.
On the other hand, the Steelers have only been marginally lucky in terms of opponent drops of pass attempts at 4.4 percent. One might actually expect this to be rather higher given the number of drops against the game against the Baltimore Ravens alone, but then again, they’ve also had some tough catches made against them.
They were also slightly in the negative at minus-2.5 percent on field goals and extra points, again, slightly surprising when considering that they blocked an extra point last week. They had a bad call go against them against the Jaguars that negated a 56-yard make and forced them to attempt a 61-yarder that missed, yet that doesn’t concern opponent attempts.
But what does all of this tell us? It is true, for example, that they have been very successful on fumbles, recovering 8 of the 13 forced on defense and only losing two of seven fumbles on offense and special teams—thanks Gunner.
There are plenty of “luck” factors that don’t seem to be taken into consideration here, however. It’s unlucky to drop your own passes and interception opportunities, for example, or to have your field goals blocked. The data is extremely incomplete, and imperfect. Still, there is something to be gleaned from it—such as that they’d better hope they keep their turnover margin on an upward trajectory.
