In recorded NFL history, 51 quarterbacks have thrown a touchdown on three percent of their pass attempts or worse among those with 500 or more pass attempts. Only one player has a lower career touchdown percentage with 500 or more pass attempts than Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett.
The 2022 first-round draft pick has tossed all of 13 touchdown passes on his 619 pass attempts over 21 games played, with 20 starts. Though he has managed to post a 12-8 record, the Steelers have only scored more than 20 points six times in those games, never more than 28, and sometimes not even because of the offense (as in the game against the Cleveland Browns this year).
I wrote upon the conclusion of his rookie season that Pickett finished his first NFL year with the lowest touchdown percentage by any starter in over a decade. With just seven touchdowns on 389 pass attempts, he only managed to find the end zone on 1.8 percent of his throws.
The 2023 season has not seen a great deal of improvement. He has thrown six touchdowns in eight games, up to 230 pass attempts thus far. His touchdown percentage for the season is now at 2.6, but that ranks fifth-to-last on the season, keeping company with the likes of Zach Wilson.
At just 13 touchdown passes on 619 attempts, Pickett’s current touchdown percentage is 2.1002. The only quarterback recorded to have a worse percentage with at least 500 career pass attempts, according to Pro Football Reference, is Gary Huff.
Huff was a second-round pick of the Chicago Bears in 1973. He played six NFL seasons, starting 28 of 57 games, 22 of those starts in Chicago. Finishing his career with just 16 touchdown passes on 788 pass attempts, he retired with a touchdown percentage of 2.03.
That is the only result that comes up in Pro Football Reference’s database that is worse than Pickett’s touchdown percentage among quarterbacks with a similar level of experience or more. He only recorded his first game with multiple touchdown passes in Week Three of the 2023 season, his 15th start.
In contrast, he has eight starts in which he didn’t throw even one, though that includes two games in which he played less than half of the snaps. Three of those games have come in the first eight weeks of the 2023 season, including two of the last three games against the Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meanwhile, Houston Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has 14 career touchdown passes in eight games, one more touchdown than Pickett in 21 games. On 279 pass attempts. His current touchdown rate is 5.02, though that was significantly boosted by a career day in which he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns Sunday. It was his fifth multi-touchdown game of the year.
What does this mean for Pickett? Well, pragmatically, the odds are strong that he’s going to have to start throwing a lot more touchdowns to be successful. There aren’t many names on that list of quarterbacks with a career touchdown percentage of three or under you’d want to be associated with.
The better names include Tyrod Taylor, Drew Stanton, Bruce Gradkowski, Kent Graham, and Colt McCoy. Pickett is currently closer to Chris Weinke, DeShone Kizer, Ryan Leaf, and Brady Quinn—and all of them are ahead of him.
