Cam Heyward says to hell with your analytics. Though they’ve become increasingly popular, not just from sites like Pro Football Focus but other advanced data that we’ve begun to dissect more and more, Heyward knows there’s only so much they can tell you. Speaking with reporters Friday, Heyward gave his take on analytics and why leaning on them can a dangerous evaluation tool.
“They don’t understand what a d-tackle does,” he said via the team website. “They can’t even tell what we’re trying to accomplish in a play. Whether it’s trying to two-gap or whether we’re trying to get upfield, whether we have a stunt on, there are all these things they don’t take into account. But all they look is the finished product. If I got a tackle or not, I could be doing my job making sure my linebackers flow free and I could be getting a plus from my coach, but you’re giving me a minus. I don’t think that’s right.”
The line between the usefulness of analytics versus being over reliant on them is a tricky one. They are attempting to do something helpful in quantifying a player’s success beyond the box score. In many ways, they try to capture what a player does than just surface level, the number of tackles or interceptions or receptions a player has. Often, these analytics are weighted by the actual rep of the player. It’s why Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett received high marks against the Steelers this year despite a “light” day on the box score, held without a sack. But because he won so many of his reps against LT Dan Moore Jr., he still graded out well.
But Heyward is also right that these grades and numbers are from an outsider point of view. Determined by people who aren’t in the building, don’t know the playbook, don’t have a full understanding of the playcall. A veteran like Heyward has occasionally adjusted mid-play to cover for someone else’s mistake, something that can’t be understood or properly quantified.
Even for us, our whole job is trying to evaluate a playbook we do not own. It’s why our focus is solely on the Steelers with the intent of watching the same scheme and defense each week to understand broader trends of how the defense works. It’s not perfect and we aren’t always right and we’re the first to admit when we’re not sure of something.
The best course is using a combination of tape and statistics. The tape comes first, the stats can help confirm or explore a topic deeper, and both have their place. That’s the direction the football world is going, even if Heyward probably doesn’t love that future.
