Somehow, someway, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-2. I don’t get it either. The offense has been among the NFL’s worst, the defense has been inconsistent, and they’ve played tough teams who on paper, had the better roster.
It begs the question. And it’s a a valid one. How are the Steelers still winning?
I can only offer this blanket answer. They know how to win close. And for them, it often means winning ugly. No team is better at hanging on or coming back than Pittsburgh. There is a strength and resolve with this team created and led by Mike Tomlin. For all his warts, that’s his calling card. Doesn’t matter how, find a way to win and usually, find a way to do it late.
The numbers back that up. We can look at it in two ways. The Mike Tomlin era and in the Matt Canada era? Because Roethlisberger was clutch and a franchise quarterback throughout his career. Did that fade at the end and how are things now that he’s retired?
Since Tomlin was hired in 2007, no team has played more one-possession games (games that ended within eight points) than the Steelers’ 153. The NFL’s average across that span is 133, meaning the Steelers have played more than a full season of close games than that. And yet despite all those chances to lose, no team has won as many close games as the Steelers, 92 of them for a 60.8 percentage. Only one other team, the Indianapolis Colts, have won even 78 of them.
From a win-percentage standpoint, here are the top three teams over that span.
| Team (Since 2007) | One-Possession Games | One-Possession Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 153 | .608 |
| New England Patriots | 110 | .600 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 143 | .591 |
And here are the three worst.
Worst Win Percentage, One-Possession Games (2007-2023)
Cleveland Browns: 130 games, .404 win percentage
Jacksonville Jaguars: 123 games, .407 win percentage
Detroit Lions: 139 games, .432 win percentage
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Quarterback play. The top three teams all had Hall of Famers. Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger), New England (Tom Brady), and Indianapolis (Peyton Manning). The three worst teams had a revolving door of crap. So that obviously plays a huge factor in this thing. But the Steelers are still so far above the average and the number of games played. The Pats have had the fewest one-possession games since 2007. They just didn’t get involved in those close finishes. The Steelers always go down to the wire.
What about since 2021? In fairness, it includes Roethlisberger’s final season yet but gives us a decent sample size and encompasses the entire tenure of Canada as OC, which we use as the line in the sand for many of our stats. Over the last two-and-a-half years, the Steelers are tied for the second-most one-possession games played in with 26 of them (Minnesota leads the NFL with 30). And the Steelers’ 71.2 win percentage is second in the NFL, only behind the Buccaneers (Brady the obvious commonality here, they’re 1-0 in such games under Baker Mayfield).
Again, here’s the top three.
| Team (Since 2021) | One-Possession Games | One-Possession Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | .765 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 26 | .712 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 17 | .706 |
And the bottom three.
Worst Win Percentage, One-Possession Games (2021-2023)
Houston Texans: 15 games, .233 win percentage
Chicago Bears: 15 games, .267 win percentage
Denver Broncos: 22 games, .273 win percentage
Poor-to-middling quarterback play the common theme here, too. For the Steelers, the fact they’ve succeeded so much despite not having top-end quarterback play and/or having an awesome roster like the Eagles, is remarkable. This is a team where you’re waiting for them to regress to the mean. For the shoe to drop. A season where the Football Gods don’t smile down upon them and have them always pull off a late or close win (often, they’re one in the same). I predicted it would occur in 2022, the first year without Roethlisberger. While the Steelers weren’t as sharp as they’ve been overall, they still went 7-5. This year, they’re 3-0, their three wins coming by four, five, and seven points.
Put it another way. Over the last two years, in which the Steelers are 12-10, here is the total margin of points they have won and lost by.
Steelers’ Margins, 2022-2023
Winning Margin: 69 points (5.8 points per game)
Losing Margin: 138 points (13.8 points per game)
When they win, it’s by two field goals. When they lose, it’s by two touchdowns. I don’t know how that stacks up across the rest of the NFL but that seems…insane. And they have a positive record. They’re not a top-five draft-pick team that wins a couple close ones and gets blown out in the rest. That would be expected, that’s probably common. The Steelers consistently win by the skinniest margins. It’s not a bug, it’s the feature. This is what they’re programmed to do.
I write all that to say this: you’re not crazy. If you think the Steelers are always giving you heart attacks, never winning easy, always coming down to the wire, you’re correct. They win but they take five years off your life in the process. Their secret sauce is doing what other teams can’t. Win close, win late. If they’re going to make it to the playoffs, this is how they get back there.
