Traditionally, an NFL team’s opening script is having roughly the first 15 plays of a game mapped out. So the offense knows exactly what they’re going to run to begin the game. It’s also a fact-finding mission to see exactly how a defense will respond to different personnel groupings, formations, and playcalls.
Like everything else, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense has struggled here. A lot. According to data collected by researcher Arjun Menon, Pittsburgh easily has the worst Expected Points Added (EPA) of the first 15 plays, “the script,” of any team in football. You’ll see the Steelers all alone to the left side, a place you don’t want to be.
Their EPA on scripted plays is just a tick above -0.6. The next closest team are the New England Patriots at -0.4, meaning the Steelers are substantially worse than any other team. By comparison, the best team in the league on scripted plays are the Miami Dolphins at roughly 0.5. No surprise to see them lead the league.
Pittsburgh’s offense is better but still far from good when it comes to EPA of non-scripted plays. Here, they’re around -0.045, exactly average at 16th in football. The Steelers’ brand of “catch-up” ball in the fourth quarter, as evident by their comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week Five, is when they’re at their best.
It’s a reminder of how truly of an awful team the Steelers are to begin games. They have not scored an opening drive touchdown since Week 15 of last season, a streak of eight games and counting. Their defense has as many first quarter touchdowns (one) as their offense and Pittsburgh has led after the first quarter just once this season, the Browns game thanks to Alex Highsmith’s pick-six. As Canada said, there’s plenty of frustration to go around.
For context, opening scripts vary and teams aren’t beholden to 15 plays. It’s an estimated number based on what coaches and teams have done in the past but every offense is different. The Steelers certainly are different than every offense. In all the worst ways possible.
