As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Five’s game against the Baltimore Ravens.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Pittsburgh Overwhelms Baltimore’s Tackles
On paper, the Steelers don’t carry a lot of positional advantages in this game over the Ravens. One area they do have the lead in are their pass rushers, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith (assuming he plays due to a groin injury, he’s told reporters he will). Baltimore’s tackles are beat up and they’ll likely be without starting RT Morgan Moses. Starting LT Ronnie Stanley could play but doesn’t look like the franchise stud he once did.
If Pittsburgh is going to take over this game, it’ll be on the backs of its pass rush. A must in this game. Which, of course, means finding a way to slow down the run game.
2. Safety Kyle Hamilton Is Identified
And not just identified but actually blocked up. Two things that are easier said than done. Hamilton is a heck of a chess piece in that secondary who can align at all levels and alignments. He’s done a ton of damage near the line of scrimmage with three sacks (tied most of any defensive back in football) and a pair of tackles for a loss. He also has a pick and a forced fumble. Hamilton can’t wreck this game.
3. Chris Boswell Provides The ‘Tucker Effect’
Two great kickers in this game with Baltimore’s Justin Tucker and Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell. Boswell has been as successful from 50-plus yards as any kicker in football, Tucker included, over the last couple years. If the Steelers are going to win, it’ll be late and it’ll probably come down to a Boswell field goal. Certainly wouldn’t be the first time. If he can “steal” three points at the end of a half and be in position to nail a game-winner, that’s something every Steelers fan would sign up for. He has out out-Tucker Tucker today. It’s supposed to be a windy day in Pittsburgh, making kickers all the more important.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. LBs Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen Control The Game
Baltimore has two stud off-ball linebackers in Smith and Queen. So much so that the Ravens have scrapped using their dime package and keep those guys on the field. Both have played 97 percent of the snaps this season (Baltimore is getting healthier so we’ll see if that changes at all). Still, Smith is one of the best in the game while Queen has found consistency and is playing to his first-round billing.
Smith and Queen are sideline-to-sideline guys, great blitzers, and can cover. Both intercepted QB Mitch Trubisky in last year’s first meeting. They must be blocked up in the run game and when you’re throwing between the numbers, you better be sure of where both are.
2. Motion, Speed Proves Too Much For Steelers’ Defense
Under new OC Todd Monken, the Ravens are spreading the field out with a more potent passing game. Rashod Bateman will play while rookie Zay Flowers has been a shot in the arm. He hasn’t been thrown downfield a lot but is a YAC threat. Pittsburgh sure better tackle much better than it did a week ago, especially in the secondary. And they’ll need to show they can run with these guys, especially with the pre-snap motion they’re going to see. The Steelers need answers for that.
3. Jordan Stout > Brad Wing
Gotta throw a special teams point in here. Sam Koch was the Ravens’ ace punter for years. The team moved on and drafted Jordan Stout in 2022 as his replacement. His rookie year was average but he’s finding his stride as a sophomore, somewhat similar to Pressley Harvin III’s jump as a third-year player. Stout is coming off the best game of his career against the Browns, averaging nearly 48 yards on seven punts with three landing inside the 20. Brad Wing was fine in his Steelers’ 2023 debut, but field position will be key here, as it was in the team’s two wins of the season.
Prediction
Steelers: 17
Ravens: 16
Season Prediction Record
2-2
