As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Eight’s game against the Jacksonville Jaguars
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. The Short Passing Game Sustains Drives
Jacksonville’s defense likes to keep the ball in front of it. A lot of zone, vision on the ball, Cover 2 and quarters coverage to keep a lid on things. Overall, they do a nice job playing situational ball and not allowing the big play. The Steelers’ offense has won in brief moments because of the big play but if a defense wants to take it away, it can. That means Pittsburgh will have to effectively use the short passing game to sustain drives and get some YAC (the Jags have missed 52 tackles this year, top-five worst entering Week Eight). Chunk plays may be hard to come by and this offense will have to find another way to win.
2. RB Travis Etienne Is Bottled Up
An obvious but important one. Jacksonville RB Travis Etienne is the Jaguars’ No. 1 guy, playing more snaps than any other runner in football. His yards per carry is down this year but he’s a home run guy facing a Steelers defense that’s allowed chunk runs. That’s gotten a bit better in recent weeks compared to the first month, but the run defense has still been lackluster. They’ll have to stop Etienne and the run out of nickel, given that Jacksonville is an 11 personnel-heavy team, and the inside linebackers must play sideline-to-sideline.
3. They Don’t Take The Cheese
As in, Jacksonville’s play-action. The Jags were a heavy play-action team in the games that I watched, especially on 1st and 10 and the first play of a possession. Pittsburgh’s defense can’t get suckered up and allow TE Evan Engram to run behind it or safeties to come up and leave the Steelers’ outside corners – whoever they end up being – in 1v1 situations. Need to have good eye discipline in this game.
Meaning play-action.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. All Tricks, No Treat
Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson could have some tricks up his sleeve days before Halloween. So much so that Mike Tomlin made it a point to address it during his Tuesday press conference. That includes fake punts, wide receiver passes, Wildcat runs, and while less of a “trick,” WR Jamal Agnew is versatile, and the receivers get involved in the running game. WR runs almost always come on 1st and 10 so be alert for them then. With a Week Seven Thursday game, the Jags have had extra time off and more time to throw in a spooky wrinkle.
2. Josh Allen Takes Over
Not the Bills quarterback. The other Josh Allen, who’s pretty good, too. A former top-10 pick, Allen is the main source of the Jaguars’ pass rush. His seven sacks are more than the rest of the team combined (six). Allen leads the team in basically every pass-rush category and extra attention has to be paid to him. Don’t forget about former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker on the other side, a more classic strong side defensive end with size and solid run defense, but Allen is the guy who can get after QB Kenny Pickett.
3. Run Game Falters
It’s applicable to basically every single week but still important to note. Pittsburgh needs its run game to work for any chance of offensive success. Jacksonville boasts an underrated and strong defense allowing under four yards per carry this season and is getting back DT Davon Hamilton off injured reserve. The Steelers’ passing game looked improved with WR Diontae Johnson’s return, but a solid and successful running game played as much of a key in Week Seven’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Prediction
Jaguars: 23
Steeles: 20
Season Prediction Record
3-3
