Over the last few days, and really over the course of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ first month, I’ve wondered how to articulate why QB Kenny Pickett has regressed. Sure, it’s easy to point the finger directly and solely at OC Matt Canada for questionable play calling and scheme. But to put it all at his feet would be wrong. Pickett improved his rookie year under him so why would he be doomed to regress this season? And watching the tape, it’s clear not all the issues are the scheme’s fault. Really, it makes up only a fraction of his poor play.
There’s a lot of layers to it and Pickett’s season is still relatively young. He’s four games in and the team is 2-2, hardly a death sentence.
If I had to distill it into two things that are clearly hampering Pickett, I’d lay it out like this.
1. His Poor Pocket Presence
2. Defenses Are Taking Away The Vertical Sideline Throw
Let’s talk about each.
Poor Pocket Presence
An aspect of his game that has been discussed exponentially over the last two weeks. It’s something we noted during his rookie year and especially in our offseason breakdown, re-watching every snap from 2022. Frankly, it was one of our largest concerns with his game.
If anything, he’s regressed. We’ve shown multiple examples of that this year, including a recent video highlighting four plays of Pickett bailing on clean pockets. Yes, the offensive line has struggled to pass protect and yes, Pickett has been hit a lot. But he is creating additional pressure and hits by leaving the pocket and making it impossible for the line to protect him, even when they do a good job.
Here’s just one example from Sunday. Off play-action, Pickett’s first read isn’t there. He inexplicably floats to his right, directly where the rush is coming from, instead of staying put or sliding left where he has “clean air.” Pickett’s nearly sacked and just able to get the ball away to avoid it. This is just bad.
Even on the failed 4th-down play, one where I give Pickett more grace for bailing than others, a better quarterback is able to move within the pocket than immediately spinning out.
That’s the biggest area to work on. For as much as we discuss mobility outside the pocket, those able to scramble, extend the play, demand spies and change how the defense rushes, mobility within the pocket matters more. Being able to navigate a muddy pocket is critical at the NFL-level. Pickett lacks the ability to hitch and slide and make the small and subtle movements top quarterbacks are able to. That’s a big problem.
Defenses Taking Away Vertical Sideline Throws
Pickett has a Ben Roethlisberger mentality. He’s a sideline thrower. He likes to see Cover 1/Cover 3 and take vertical sideline shots in 1-on-1 coverage. Especially to a guy like George Pickens. After seeing it last year, defenses are taking it away.
To provide more data, our Clayton Eckert crunched the numbers. Throws 15-plus yards downfield and within three yards of the left or right sideline. Here’s how the numbers compare from 2022 to the first four games of 2023.
Throws 15-Plus Yards, Within Three Yards Of Either Sideline
2022: 10 percent (39 of 389)
2023: 5.5 percent (7 of 127)
His percentage on these throws have nearly been halved from last year to this year. It’s not for a lack of Pickett turning down those throws. They simply haven’t been there. Teams are taking those kinds of routes away and forcing Pickett to attack other areas of the field. To use the middle of the field more and that’s just not what he’s most comfortable with.
He loves the jump ball, the back-shoulder fade, and threw them routinely in camp. How many deep shots have there been to Pickens this season? Very few. It’s gotten him out of his rhythm and eliminated those chunk plays to boost stats, pick up a bunch of yards, and get your confidence going.
Here’s a snippet of Pickens’ route tree from last year to this year. You can see the ones labeled 2022 and 2023. Those sideline routes are gone. Of course, I am happy to see Pickens expand his route tree and win in different ways — he’s not the static one-route receiver he was as a rookie — but those routes he excels at best are gone. In part because defenses are taking it away.
I also wondered if Pickett had been seeing more zone coverage this year, which he seems to struggle against more than man. But he doesn’t seem to be. According to Eckert, he’s seeing zone at essentially the same rate as last year. In 2022, it was 61.9 percent. In 2023, it’s 61 percent.
These two problems aren’t his only issues. But they’re two I’m pretty confident in. The good news is his pocket presence can be fixed. And often, young quarterbacks struggle here the most. Their instinct is to leave the pocket and run, in part because they did it a lot in college and had the athleticism to get away with it. Not the case in the NFL. But it’s still an area Pickett must improve upon.
As for deep shots to Pickens, that may be harder to solve if defenses aren’t letting it happen. But Pittsburgh could make a better effort to use him on more vertical routes and try to create more of those 1v1 matchups. They’re two areas I’ll keep watching the rest of the year.
