I know the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a bye week. And normally, I wouldn’t have a spicy take to get off my chest. But this has been a feeling simmering for weeks, and it boiled over the last few days after hearing more commentary about it.
George Pickens is getting the ball enough. The Steelers are feeding him. He’s not starved. Stop saying it.
What put me over the edge was Chris Long’s comments on his most recent show, urging Pittsburgh to throw Pickens the ball more often. On his Green Light podcast, here’s what he said.
“And I’d like to see more [George] Pickens, in general. I say it every week, I would take one back-shoulder shot at him every fucking possession. Because every time you do it, for two-and-half seconds, everyone’s looking around for flags. You know, for an offense that doesn’t move the ball, I would take the upside.”
He’s far the only one. The ringleader of this talking point is Mike Florio, even going so far as to wonder if the team is purposely limiting his catches to avoid paying him (no, they’re not). It’s his default response, his go-to when asked about Pickens or the Steelers’ offense. That’s his answer to everything. How can the offense produce? Throw it to George Pickens. What will get Kenny Pickett’s career on track? Throw it to George Pickens. Who is the creator of the universe and what is the meaning of life? George Pickens, and his omnipresence is the reason why we should throw him the ball.
The line sounds smart. Throw Pickens the ball. Without Diontae Johnson, who should be returning Sunday, he’s clearly been the team’s best receiver. And the dude has made plays. When the Baltimore Ravens foolishly singled him up throughout Week Five’s game, Pickens made them pay. Of course you’re always trying to get your top guy involved.
But here’s a reality check to the narrative. Pickens is being targeted a ton. Last year, he averaged 4.94 targets per game. This year? It sits at exactly eight per game. Granted, with Johnson out, but the criticism has come despite that. Pickens is seeing significantly more action than he did as a rookie.
Targets alone, admittedly, can be a skewed number. They don’t take into consideration several factors. Target share, the percentage of total targets received by one player, is a relative number. And I love me some relativity. Through five weeks, Pickens has received 24.4 percent of Steelers’ targets. Last year, that number sat at 14.7 percent, a rise of nearly 10 percent. So Pickens is clearly seeing the ball a lot more, as you’d expect given the injuries around him and his natural growth. His share is only one percent below Johnson’s from his last two years,
Consider that the Steelers’ offense has also barely had the ball this year, limiting the number of targets for a guy like Pickens. The Steelers rank 29th in average time of possession per game and they’re 31st in TOP per drive.
Let’s zoom out NFL-wide. Entering Week Six, Pickens’ 40 targets saw him tied for 17th-most in football. Which, to be fair, doesn’t sound great. But it’s a clustered together group he’s part of and if he had another six targets, he’d be in the top 10. He’s just outside that cusp. To go back to the more important target share, of those with similar target numbers as Pickens, he has a higher target share than Los Angeles’ Tutu Atwell (40 targets, 19.7 percent), Houston’s Robert Woods (40 targets, 21.4 percent), Denver’s Courtland Sutton (37 targets, 20 percent), Jacksonville’s Christian Kirk (43 targets, 23.5 percent), and even Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (46 targets, 20 percent). His numbers are right in line with Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (26 percent, this is before he missed this weekend’s slate of games with his long-term injury) and New Orleans’ Chris Olave (25.4 percent).
You could argue some of those other teams have a better cast of weapons, causing them to spread the ball and the love around. That’s valid. But in some ways, that has made it harder to get Pickens the ball. There’s no question teams have rolled coverage and doubled him because he’s become Pittsburgh’s primary and often only threat on the outside. Teams can game plan away players and Pickens is a logical name to take aim at. WR Calvin Austin III’s 72-yard touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders occurred, in part, due to Pickens being doubled by the corner and safety, leaving Austin one-on-one to use his speed to win. That’s difficult to quantify the value of but it’s important.
One last thing. While Pickens is a vastly improved and more balanced route runner than a year ago, when he was pure “vertical dude,” he’s still not a great one. Or all that close to. He’s still a little sloppy, doesn’t always run as hard as he should or finish his routes, and isn’t a shifty and natural separator. The potential is there but he’s yet to evolve into an elite receiver and isn’t the route runner of a Jefferson or Davante Adams or teammate Diontae Johnson. Pickens is still a second-year guy and far from a finished product. He’s not at that upper echelon level. Not yet, anyway.
You’re always looking to feature top players more. Always wondering if you’re doing anything. On the margins, there’s probably a few smarter and better things the Steelers could to get Pickens a few more targets. I’ll grant you that. But we’d be haggling over small differences that really aren’t changing the state of the Steelers’ offense or the outcome of their games. Pickens is seeing more than enough targets. Any additional commentary is nitpicking.
