With the Steelers’ 2023 regular season underway following a disappointing year that came up just short of reaching the playoffs, it’s time to start finding out whether or not the answers to last year’s questions are on the roster, tested all throughout training camp and the preseason.
Both sides of the ball got key additions through both free agency and the draft, with new starters, including potentially rookies, amounting to half a dozen or more. The offensive line, the linebackers, and the secondary were all key targets since last year. But what will they look like?
These sorts of uncertainties are what I will look to address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, I will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
Topic Statement: Diontae Johnson will go back to being the Steelers’ number one WR by target share.
Explanation: With the veteran wide receiver returning from the Reserve/Injured List this week, there will be a necessary redistribution of targets. Johnson under normal circumstances would see 10-plus targets per game, which is close to what George Pickens has been seeing in Johnson’s absence.
Buy:
Let’s start with some basic facts. In the past four games, the Steelers have attempted 118 pass attempts. Of that number, 33 have gone to WR George Pickens. That’s a reasonably healthy target share of more than 25 percent.
But that’s also with low-volume alternative targets in Allen Robinson II and Calvin Austin III at wide receiver. TE Pat Freiermuth has not been a volume target, either, and missed a game. While Pickens has been targeted at least six times in every game, he has never been targeted more than 10 times.
Johnson had already been targeted six times by the time he was injured in the opener. Even in a low-volume passing game in 2022, he was targeted 10-plus times in eight games.
Given the Steelers’ targets’ struggles to create separation in Johnson’s absence, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be a frequent target in his return. Pickens will still see his opportunities, but they will probably be more concentrated on the sidelines, with Johnson working more along the interior with a more diverse route tree.
Sell:
Here are some other facts: the Steelers win when Pickens produces. They are 3-0 this season when he has 75-plus yards and 0-2 when he doesn’t. In those two losses, he combined for just 61 yards. And he has two of the team’s five total offensive touchdowns.
This offense needs him to make plays in order to function, let alone thrive. His route tree and skill set are no longer limited as he was as a rookie. Johnson’s return will only open things up for him even more, so he should see at least as many targets, if not more, at least initially before defenses adjust.
But if they ignore Johnson, he will eat defenses up before they realize that they can’t commit all their resources to one or the other.
