The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is in dire need of several improvements coming out of the bye week, and today I wanted to provide some data context. First, Pittsburgh ranks dead last with a 36-percent success rate in the NFL per nflfastR, which it defines as the percentage of plays with an expected points added (EPA) > 0.
I wanted to dive deeper and see how Pittsburgh and the rest of the NFL has fared in personnel groupings. The majority of the league plays in 11 (1 running back, 1 tight end) and 12 (1 running back, 2 tight ends) the most. Let’s start with 11 personnel, looking at usage and success rates in that situation:
We can see from the visual that the Steelers run 11 personnel well above league average, at 73 percent, which ranks sixth most per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They are well below the mean in terms of success though, at 38 percent, which ties for 25th.
The usage rates will likely remain similar, if not increase, moving forward with WR Diontae Johnson set to return in the near future after exiting the season opener due to a hamstring injury. Hopefully his presence (for himself and others) will help in terms of success for a passing game that ranks 31st in overall drop-back success rate and the most utilized 11 personnel grouping with three wide receivers on the field. His route separation has been sorely missed as QB Kenny Pickett has thrown the most passes into tight windows in the NFL thus far.
The run game has really struggled as well, with a 32.7 success rate (30th) and is still without a touchdown in 2023, setting a painful franchise record. Pittsburgh really needs to focus on its scheme and execution, along with looking at what has worked well. For example, Dave Bryan provided a great stat recently, finding success with trap, power, and wham at 6.9 YPC but only eight attempts.
Here’s to hoping for more of that, along with more pulling linemen, which has been successful around the league. The ground game must get going in hopes of a turnaround for the offense. That would be huge for the NFL’s worst offense in average time of possession, yards per possession (22.4), and in the red zone.
Next, here’s how NFL teams have fared in 12 personnel:
It’s been even worse for the Steelers in 12 personnel, with an abysmal 28 percent success rate that ranks 31st. The only team that’s worse is the Rams, who are up next in Week Seven, and have a much lower six percent usage rate compared to Pittsburgh’s league average 20 percent, which ranks 16th.
TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington have the most playing time, and it’s been lackluster overall so far. A bright spot has been former in the red zone, where both of Freiermuth’s receiving touchdowns have come, and one of them from 12 personnel. It’s been quiet for tight ends in the pass game, with Freiermuth seeing just 13 targets and eight catches in four games, along with 5-of-9 for Connor Heyward, and 1-of-3 for Washington. Overall, it’s 25 targets, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Didn’t expect that with Johnson being out.
Run blocking has also been an issue, with the group, lacking consistency. This is the main immediate reason Washington was drafted. Showing flashes, he has been inconsistent and is the lowest Pittsburgh tight end in Pro Football Focus run-block grading (48.2). That ranks bottom 10 across the league (minimum of 50 run-block snaps). Here’s to hoping for a positive trend from him throughout the rest of his rookie campaign, one of the several needed improvements overall and aiding 12-personnel success.
Pittsburgh is coming off a tough matchup in the Ravens, who played eight men in the box 35.7 percent of the time on runs by RB Najee Harris, by far the most he’s seen in 2023 (second highest was 26.3 percent versus the Raiders). Along with sound tackling, the result was his lowest 2.6 yards per attempt in 2023, only one forced missed tackle, and long of eight yards after having a 15-plus run in each of the first four games.
With the struggles across the board, neither the run nor pass game are doing each other favors. The run game is higher on my radar, with hopeful success there opening up the passing game more. The Steelers definitely had their work cut out for them during the bye week. Knock on wood, it was a productive one from coaches and players to steer the struggling offense in the right direction. Hey, they did it last year.
