What a great preseason the Pittsburgh Steelers just wrapped up! They have checked so many boxes that should leave us fans feeling very optimistic for the 2023 regular season, preseason caveats and all. Early and comfortable leads, explosive plays in assorted fashion, driving down the field, yards after catch (YAC), red zone touchdowns, and much more. The latter is one of the few boxes starting quarterback Kenny Pickett didn’t check, so can’t wait to see what happens when the games count. Also, no passing touchdowns or interceptions for any of the four quarterbacks this game, not needed with the three rushing touchdowns.
For the second season now, I will be charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers. A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. One pass was removed this week, a throwaway.
In the preseason finale, Pickett went 4/4 on two drives, 86 yards, with 56 completed air yards (65.1%). The opening drive went the length of the field including two explosive plays. The first was a third and five conversion, finding wide receiver Diontae Johnson on a go route with ample separation for the 33-yard gain. Pickett’s next pass was the other, throwing another dart to the sideline and wide receiver George Pickens making another circus/combat catch for 35 yards to the one-yard line, where running back Najee Harris hammered it in the next play (props to the o-line). Pickett threw for.
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky went 7/9 for 54 yards, with 18 completed air yards (33.3%). Most of the latter came on my favorite play from him, a play-action boot to the left, throwing it on the run between defenders, and despite the pass being out in front, H-back Connor Heyward made a great diving catch for the 16-yard gain. Quarterback Mason Rudolph went 3/7 for 15 yards, but was pressured three times and had two drops from (all due respect) non-roster wide receivers Dez Fitzpatrick and Dan Chisena. Quarterback Tanner Morgan went 1/4 four -4 yards. He was under duress as well, including being sandwiched on his first dropback (pressure Dylan Cook and Le’Raven Clark), doing well to get the throwaway off.
Let’s look at a simple view of all 23 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for the game:
Here we see a rare tie in the most common pass distance, with 0-5 yards being the case almost every week, and the quarterbacks being aggressive with seven explosive pass attempts, going yolo in the preseason finale.
The explosive rate came in at 30.4%, usually half that number or less. The first two were the aforementioned explosive plays from Pickett. The other five were incomplete. Trubisky’s lone attempt was overthrown out of bounds to wide receiver Gunner Olszewski on a double move. Rudolph had two attempts, both 40+ air yards and overthrown. Morgan’s two were both end zone targets, one overthrown into double coverage and the other caught by Fitzpatrick but out of bounds.
At 0-5 air yards, my favorite play was on a third and five. Trubisky found Olszewski on a quick out short of the sticks, and forced a missed tackle to pick up five in YAC for the conversion. Several of these plays weren’t too notable, and Chisena’s drop came in this range.
Big uptick this week behind the line (21.7%) on five passes. The first came from Pickett on a successful screen (what?!) to Harris, who showed pass block off the snap for a sneaky leak out, taking the -3 air yards for a 16-yard gain (19 YAC), nice. Another screen was from Trubisky to Heyward from running back alignment at -4 air yards, gaining 11 (15 YAC) on the third and four conversion. One was unsuccessful early in the fourth quarter, with lineman Kendrick Green missing his block that blew up running back Darius Hagans for a loss of five. Similarly, Morgan threw a screen to running back Greg Bell, but lineman William Dunkle couldn’t land the block, leading in a loss of four on third and six. Refreshing to see the early success though.
Three-way tie for the remaining pass distances (8.7%), with two throws each. Nothing too notable at 5-10 air yards, with a quick out from Trubisky to wide receiver Miles Boykin for a gain of seven on second and 17, and a slant from Rudolph to Fitzpatrick who had a shot but it was defended well.
At 10-15 air yards, the first of two passes was the aforementioned diving Heyward catch from Trubisky, and the other was another attempt to wide receiver Miles Boykin over the middle, but was good coverage and broken up incomplete.
Two instances at 15-20 air yards as well, one on my favorite play from Rudolph. On third and 15, he escaped pressure (Spencer Anderson) despite a facemask, with a nice scramble drill conversion to Chisena for 16 yards. With the penalty, a 30-yard play.
Here is the dot chart for the charted throws this game:
The visual highlights a few things right away. All four quarterbacks had at least one explosive attempt, all seven outside the numbers, and Pickett the only one able to connect. Also at least one behind-the-line pass from each QB, all of them completed. All of Trubisky’s passes of 0-5 air were to the right outside of the numbers, going 4/4. He also had the only pass between the hashes, that fell incomplete.
In totality, ten passes were inside the numbers (43.5%, compared to 50% last week), both above 2022’s season average which is encouraging. 7/10 though (70%), down from 91.7% last week (11/12). 8/13 on passes outside the numbers (61.5%), much more than 37.5% last week and 52.4% in 2022. Here’s to hoping that’s a more even spread with Pickett in 2023.
Now for completion rates by distances:
Behind the line: This game 5/5 (100%). Preseason 7/7 (100%).
0-5 air yards: This game 6/7 (85.7%). Preseason 29/31 (93.5%).
5-10 air yards: This game 1/2 (50%). Preseason 12/16 (75%).
10-15 air yards: This game 1/2 (100%). Preseason 8/14 (57.1%).
15-20 air yards: This game 2/2 (100%). Preseason 4/5 (80%).
Explosive (20+ air yards): This game 2/7 (28.6%). Preseason 4/12 (33.3%).
The quarterbacks remained perfect behind the line all preseason, with the majority coming in the finale. All other pass distances took a hit in terms of completion rates, particularly explosive passes from non-starters, as we can see from the preseason rates. Can’t wait to see what this looks like for Pickett (knocks on wood for health).
Now for the heat maps, starting with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
The first visual looks very encouraging for both Pickett and Rudolph, but the latter trailing off on the completions only view. Two notes, the heat maps function better with more passes, so their heat maps are a bit wider than Trubisky who had more attempts. Tanner Morgan did not make the completions only heat map with just one completed pass (at least two needed). The point still remains, Pickett’s two explosive were by far the most impactful in terms of distance, while the backups longest air yard completions were 16 for Rudolph and 15 for Trubisky, both improvements from last game.
Now let’s look at the 74 charted throws this preseason:
The most common range has been 0-5 air yards, which is true for the vast majority of NFL teams, with three yards leading the way. Here are the 2023 full preseason percentages by pass distance, including the previous average, and 2022 regular season rates to see trends:
#1. 0-5 air yards: Preseason 40.5%. Previously 45.1%. 2022 33.9%.
#2. 5-10 air yards: Preseason 21.6%. Previously 27.5%. 2022 28.1%.
#3. 10-15 air yards: Preseason 18.9%. Previously 23.5%. 2022 16%.
#4. Explosive (20+ air yards): Preseason 16.2%. Previously 9.8%. 2022 13.9%.
#5. Behind the line: Preseason 9.5%. Previously 3.9%. 2022 13.6%.
#6. 15-20 air yards: Preseason 6.8%. Previously 5.9%. 2022 9.4%
Behind-the-line passes moved up a spot this week, a big uptick compared to the rest of the preseason, but each coming in comfortably lower than the 2022 regular season. It was successful this game, but hopefully Pittsburgh gets quality over quantity as the team needs to be more aggressive downfield in 2023. We did see a big uptick in explosives this game, but can’t wait to see what this looks like with Pickett in year two. Including the rates from the full 2022 regular season was not for hard conclusions with the preseason and small sample caveats, but to gauge what has been different.
Here are the dots for all 2023 preseason attempts:
Albeit a small sample, Pickett’s chart is well dispersed, which is encouraging and hopefully carries into the games that count. it is also great to see several more passes on/between the numbers so far, with a more even split this preseason at 48.6% and 52.7% outside the numbers than in 2022. Pairing that with the expectation that Pickett will open up the field in terms of pass distances as well, along with the results we’ve been getting, I’m very optimistic for the passing game this season.
Speaking of which, Pickett ended the 2023 preseason 13/15 (86.7% completion rate), 199 yards, 13.3 yards per attempt (YPA), two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He had three big-time throws (BTT), no turnover-worthy plays (TWP), no drops, sacks, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Trubisky went 18/26 (69.2%), 142 yards, 5.5 YPA, one touchdown, and one interception. He had no BTT, two TWP, no drops, sacked three times, and a 79.3 passer rating. Rudolph went 15/26 (57.7%), 199 yards (ironically matched Pickett on more attempts), 7.7 YPA, one touchdown, and no interceptions. Rudolph had three BTT, one TWP, three drops, three sacks, and a 94.9 passer rating. Morgan went 6/12 (50%), 32 yards, 2.7 YPA, no touchdowns, and one interception. He had one BTT, two TWP, one drop, two sacks, and an abysmal 21.5 passer rating.
Now for completion rates by distances and quarterback:
Behind the line: Pickett 2/2 100%. Trubisky 3/3 100%. Rudolph 1/1 100%. Morgan 1/1 100%.
0-5 air yards: Pickett 4/5 80%. Trubisky 12/12 100%. Rudolph 9/10 90%. Morgan 4/4 100%.
5-10 air yards: Pickett 2/2 100%. Trubisky 5/5 100%. Rudolph 5/8 62.5%%. Morgan 0/1 0%.
10-15 air yards: Pickett 3/4 75%. Trubisky 2/5 40%. Rudolph 2/3 66.7%. Morgan 1/2 50%.
15-20 air yards: Pickett 0/1 0%. Trubisky 1/1 100%. Rudolph 2/2 100%. Morgan 1/1 100%.
Explosive (20+ air yards): Pickett 3/3 100%. Trubisky 0/3 0%. Rudolph 1/4 25%. Morgan 0/2 0%.
To close, here are the heat maps for all preseason attempts, along with the completions only heat map:
While he didn’t heave it downfield in gunslinger fashion, we see Pickett connected way more downfield, and had looked excellent so far. I hope you’re as excited as I am to see how the Pittsburgh Steelers passing game fares in 2023.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
