Pittsburgh was able to get their second win in a row, now 2-1 to start 2023. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, three throwaways were removed.
QB Kenny Pickett trended in the right direction this week, a performance that he can hopefully continue to improve upon. One bright spot was his first multiple-touchdown NFL game (two). Also had no interceptions, but one was dropped. Pickett went 16/28 for 235 yards, and his highest 108.5 passer rating of 2023. He was pressured a ton, bailing some clean pockets and ran into his lone sack, but made plays with his legs as well (pass/run). Pittsburgh used more play-action, along with YAC success aiding the offense, encouragingly.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 25 charted passes, with the number of throws at each pass distance for week one:
We encouragingly saw a higher rate of intermediate passing (10-15 yards) this week, along with less behind-the-line passes. The most common pass distance was 0-5 air yards, at 36 percent.
One example was the near interception to TE Connor Heyward, who ran an out and up in the first quarter, with Pickett throwing the out. Pick six avoided, whew. On the same drive, Pickett threw from an empty set to WR Allen Robinson in the flat, who churned for good YAC. A benefactor in the increased play-action was TE Pat Freiermuth, targeted at five air yards on an out route with space/YAC for the 14-yard gain.
Another was great pocket presence and play-call, picking WR George Pickens open on a crosser (three air yards), taking the third and five for a 32-yard conversion. The final pass of the game was huge: a third and two conversion and timely out route by Robinson, open with Austin’s vertical route carrying two defenders. Allowed Pittsburgh to run the clock, big play. Hopefully, we will see similar success and play-calling on third down moving forward.
The second most was an encouraging change to 10-15 air yards (28 percent). One was a third and eight conversion, where Pickett found Pickens over the middle despite the huge hit (free twist rusher) on a slant for 13 yards. The duo connected again on a play-action, rolling left and throwing to the sideline with a great toe-tap catch on a comeback for 13 yards.
The following pass was a back-shoulder to Pickens, defended well but hit his hands, a catch he’s spoiled us to expect him to make. He also tried a back-shoulder to WR Calvin Austin against tight coverage, not an ideal situation/decision on third and six, and took a big hit allowed by RB Jaylen Warren. Two positive plays included a nice find and post route from Pickens, getting open with YAC for 17 yards. Then Freiermuth did a great job finding space between the hashes against zone at 11 air yards on the 14-yard gain.
Third was 5-10 air yards (20 percent), after being the most common last game. One was the first play of the second half, noting Pickett holding it (Austin was open over the middle), instead finding Robinson late along the sideline on a scramble drill for eight yards. Another was thrown well out of bounds to Warren, caught but had no chance to get his feet down. Pickett was inaccurate on a play-action, sliding left and throwing ahead of Austin on an out route.
15-20 air yards came in fourth (16 percent). The first pass of the game was on third and six, a high throw on the move (pocket collapsed), with Austin unable to corral outside his frame. Second three and out to start the game, this reoccurring issue must improve. The other two were to Freiermuth.
First was the touchdown, refreshingly from the red zone, his second in 2023. Pittsburgh only has three RZ attempts this year (worst in the NFL), so converting is huge. It was also off play-action and the fourth consecutive play of ten+ yards, an awesome third-quarter drive. The other was late in the game on third and eight, where Pickett threw a bit behind Muth over the middle, unable to corral and broken up.
12 percent of passes were behind the line, much less than last week. One was a stuffed screen to Austin for no gain, with failed blocks from Robinson and C Mason Cole. Next was a nice play-action, fake-reverse, then screen to Warren, with space in front (Cole and G Isaac Seumalo blocks) 19 in YAC. Last was also to Warren, who motioned from out wide, getting the screen with subpar blocks from Freiermuth and Robinson for five yards.
The least common pass distance was explosive air yards, at eight percent (two attempts), but weren’t necessary in the game circumstance. Pittsburgh made the first one count, a 38 air-yard strike by Pickett between the hashes in stride to Austin, who ran past the defense for the triple-explosive 72-yard touchdown and 34 YAC, wow! The other was also to Austin, thrown ahead of him incomplete, with Pickett taking a huge hit (T Dan Moore).
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for week three:
The touchdown to Austin sits pretty at 38 air yards. Just two explosive air-yard passes though, going 1/2. 15-20 air yards were as frequent as last week with less connection (1/4) but did feature the Freiermuth touchdown. More success and frequency at 10-15 air yards 4/7, with three of those between the numbers. 2/5 at 5-10 air yards and 6/9 0-5 air yards, less short area accuracy still from Pickett in 2023 so far. He did go 3/3 behind the line.
In totality, between the number rates stick out. 7/8 (87.5-percent) this game including four 10+ completions, compared to 5/9 (55.6-percent) last week. Very encouraging. In this game, all but one incompletion came outside the numbers, going 7/15 (46.7 percent) past the line of scrimmage. Need higher frequency between the numbers, at only 32 percent, compared to a whopping 68 percent on/outside. Pickett looks there on the run quite often, so protection/pocket presence are high on my radar moving forward.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
There are much healthier charts this week, highlighted by the explosive 38 air-yarder. It was between the hashes as well, something we have seldom seen as Steelers fans. While not elite, the run game improvements did aid the passing game, along with the increased play-action and intermediate passing we saw. Here’s to hoping for a continued positive trend in all of the above, with a stronger start to the game what we’re still waiting on.
Now let’s look at all 96 charted throws this season, with frequencies for the season and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 33.3-percent. Previously 33.4-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 28.1-percent. Previously 31-percent.
#3. Behind the line: Season 18.8-percent. Previously 21.1-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 14.6-percent. Previously 9.9-percent.
#5. 15-20 air-yards: Season 13.5-percent. Previously 12.7-percent.
#6. Explosive (20+ air-yards): Season 9.4-percent. Previously 9.9-percent.
The biggest rate change was intermediate throws, particularly 10-15 air yards increasing over four percentage points. 15-20 air yards was the other encouraging uptick including Muth’s TD, a breath of fresh air that I’ve been hoping for. Particularly important with explosives under ten percent in my opinion. The other pass distances decreased, most encouragingly behind the line. Just three passes, and smarter about who they targeted (Austin, Warren).
Here are the dots for all 2023 charted attempts, along with completion rates by distance:
Behind the line: Season 16/18 (88.9 percent). Previously 13/15 (86.7 percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 24/32 (75 percent). Previously 18/23 (78.3 percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 16/27 (59.3 percent). Previously 14/22 (63.6 percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 8/14 (57.1 percent). Previously 4/7 (57.1 percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 5/13 (38.5 percent). Previously 4/9 (44.4 percent).
Explosive: Season 2/9 (22.2 percent). Previously 1/7 (14.3 percent).
Short game accuracy was Pickett’s calling card his rookie year but continues to dip in completion rates from 0-10 yards. The other decrease was 15-20 air yards, with more frequency but unfortunately accuracy issues at this distance. The percentage improvements were behind the line and explosive, with a low bar on the latter. Most encouraging was 10-15 air yards doubled in frequency, and stood pat in completion rates.
To close, here are the heat maps for all charted passes, along with the completions-only heat map:
It’s much better than week one and two. Game three trends that will be interesting to monitor are receivers by primary distance: Warren behind the line, Robinson short, Pickens and Freiermuth intermediate, and Austin explosive. This will indeed change week-to-week but like that general ratio. Can’t wait to see it progress, especially when WR Diontae Johnson returns to likely improve the short air-yards numbers with his separation skills.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
