Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers had a gauntlet of a schedule. And felt what it was like to play contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles, two of the Steelers worst losses of the Mike Tomlin era. Though each season is unpredictable and “strength of schedule” only means so much, things look easier for Pittsburgh this year. On paper, anyway.
Numbers-cruncher Warren Sharp released his 2023 NFL strength of schedule (SOS) rankings and has the Steelers with the seventh-easiest schedule.
According to his math, things have improved for Pittsburgh since May with the Steelers bumping up three spots in SOS from No. 10 to No. 7, denoting an easier schedule.
For Sharp, being in that top seven is notable. Last year, six of the seven teams with the easiest schedule made the playoffs. Of the eleven teams with the hardest schedules last year, which included Pittsburgh, only two of them made the postseason. The Steelers, of course, did not, done in by the hole they dug the first half of the year that not even a 7-2 finish could reverse.
However, Pittsburgh’s start to the season is anything but easy. One week from today, they’ll take on the San Francisco 49ers, who made it to the NFC Title Game last year before losing both their quarterbacks in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. After the opener, things look easier with a Week Two home game against the Cleveland Browns, not an “easy” game by any means but one the Steelers can win. Pittsburgh will be on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans the following two weeks, a pair of winnable games, before facing the Baltimore Ravens at home in Week 5. They’ll travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams after their bye week.
Comparatively, the Steelers schedule is easier than the rest of the AFC North. The next-closest team are the Baltimore Ravens at No. 17, an interesting footnote considering the commonality of schedules between all the North teams. They’ll all play the AFC North teams twice and take on the NFC West this season.
Though Sharp will argue in favor of his track record, SOS only tells you so much. Each season is full of surprises and can’t take into account in-season injuries that can shape the course of Pittsburgh’s season or their opponents. The Steelers were a completely different team after T.J. Watt partially tore his pec Week One. That’s stuff SOS can’t tell you about.
Still, it’s not a bad sign for Pittsburgh as they look to make their way back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 and hope to win their first postseason game since 2016. Sharp’s analytics have the Steelers winning 8.7 games.
The NFL’s “easiest” schedule goes to the Atlanta Falcons. The “hardest” will be faced by the New England Patriots.
