If you missed it, Dave Bryan and I made our 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers predictions on yesterday’s episode of The Terrible Podcast. I normally include my written prediction in my annual stats preview but since that came out earlier in the week, I didn’t want to spoil my prediction for the podcast (and frankly, I was still thinking about it).
That said, here’s my prediction and couple of notes on the Steelers’ season.
Steelers 2023 Record: 10-7, Wild Card Team
A one-game improvement from a year ago. Which, I know, doesn’t sound like much considering how undeniably better this team is than 2022. With new additions and growth of the returning players, this is a talented roster. Still, the division and conference is incredibly competitive and I really think Pittsburgh still played over their skies last season. That 7-2 stretch run probably wouldn’t have been duplicated had they gotten a do-over and they were more of a 7-10 or 8-9 club a year ago.
And as you climb up the ladder of wins, the harder it is. It’s easier for a three-win team to add three more than it is for a ten-win team to do the same.
But I have Pittsburgh back in the playoffs after missing out a year ago. The expectation should be for the team to at least make the postseason. Anything short of that, barring obvious long-term injuries that derail the Steelers year, will be viewed as a disappointment. This roster is good enough to be one of the AFC’s top seven and the undeniably have a way of winning close, one-score games where other teams struggle. They’ll get in the dance.
Playoff Outcome – One & Done, Lose In Wild Card Round
To who? I have no idea. It could be an AFC North foe, it could be Jacksonville, it could be one of the teams we expect it to be. As anxious as I am to finally break this playoff drought, one that’s gone on far too long and is lost by the national media in their endless praise of Tomlin’s “never had a losing season” streak, I don’t think this is the year.
Of course, one-and-done is their recent track record. The offense has turned the ball over. The defense hasn’t played well. How those things look in a singular game, especially with such a different-looking roster, is anyone’s guess. My calculation is that it’s still a young offense and a team that doesn’t have a ton of playoff experience, especially at key positions. I think it’s one more year for this team to be able to make a serious playoff run.
If this team is being built in the vision of the Philadelphia Eagles, where Assistant GM Andy Weidl came from, it took until Jalen Hurts was in his third year for them to make their run. In year one, he came off the bench mid-way through his rookie season and struggled. His sophomore year was better but they were eliminated Wild Card weekend. His third year, they go to the Super Bowl. That seems like a path Pittsburgh could take. Which unfortunately, means being patient one more year.
AFC North Standings
1. Baltimore: 12-5
2. Cincinnati: 11-6
3. Pittsburgh: 10-7
4. Cleveland: 8-9
I’ve been in on Baltimore the last few seasons and I’m ready to get hurt again. At this point, it’s a big *if* QB Lamar Jackson can stay healthy. But the Ravens were 7-5 and 8-4 with him before he got hurt the past two seasons and they had a good shot to win the North both times had Jackson stayed upright. Jackson finally has actual wide receivers to throw to, a big boost for that offense. The Bengals are a solid team but their defensive losses, chiefly safeties Jesse Bates and Vonn Bell, isn’t being talked about enough.
Cleveland is a true Wild Card, they could be an 11-12 win team if Deshaun Watson turns back into an elite quarterback. But the Browns never seem to put it together. I’ll believe it once I see it.
