When it comes to the scouting process, you’ll often hear talks about ceilings and floors for players.
What about actual ceilings and floors for teams though?
CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr attempted to answer that always-elusive question Monday, breaking down the ceiling and floor for all 32 teams in the NFL.
Unsurprisingly with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kerr sees a boom-or-bust type year overall.
For Kerr, the ceiling for the Steelers in 2023 is winning the rugged AFC North, while the floor is a losing record and missing the playoffs under head coach Mike Tomlin.
“The Steelers appear primed to strike in the division this season, thanks to the emergence of Kenny Pickett heading into his second year. Not only has Pickett improved, but he has a rising star in George Pickens at wide receiver — with Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson as his other options,” Kerr writes regarding the Steelers’ perceived ceiling in 2023 for CBSSports.com. “… The defense is one of the best in the league when T.J. Watt is on the field. If Pickett emerges into an upper echelon quarterback, the Steelers are a serious threat to win the division.”
It’s not at all a surprise that the ceiling of the Steelers, at least from Kerr’s vantage point, rides on the development of Pickett and how big of a leap the second-year quarterback can take in 2023.
Based on everything he’s shown ahead of the 2023 season, from his play in training camp to the outstanding performances across the three preseason games, Pickett is poised for a massive leap forward.
He’s much more comfortable and confident in the system under offensive coordinator Matt Canada entering his second NFL season. He’s shown improved pocket presence and his arm looks stronger, at least on shorter throws. The accuracy remains rather impressive, too. There’s just an overall confidence oozing from Pickett ahead of his second season and it’s rubbing off on the rest of the offense — and the team — in general.
Add in the weapons he has around him, the improved offensive line and a good 1-2 punch in the backfield in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and the Steelers offense looks like a good one on paper.
That doesn’t even touch on a defense that looks very strong at all three levels, at least on paper. With the health of T.J. Watt back to normal, the defense should once again be a strong presence.
Of course, health is the biggest thing with the Steelers in 2023.
For the floor, Kerr sees an 8-9 record and the Steelers missing the playoffs again. That record would also mark the first-ever losing season in the Tomlin tenure.
“If the Steelers didn’t have a losing season last year with a developing rookie quarterback and a poor offensive line, they may never have one under Mike Tomlin. But could it come this season?” Kerr writes regarding the Steelers’ potential floor in 2023. “The Steelers do have some question marks at cornerback with an aging Patrick Peterson, but they did draft Joey Porter Jr. to fill the void. The offensive line has some concerns on the right side, while Jones hasn’t beaten out Dan Moore at left tackle (yet). If Pickett struggles, can the rushing game and defense pick him up?”
When it comes to the Steelers’ roster in 2023, the cornerback room is a fair concern. Even after the signing of Desmond King last week following his release from the Houston Texans, the depth is certainly interesting. Pittsburgh seems to be putting a lot on the plate of the aging Peterson, which is concerning, but the Steelers do have Porter coming along rather quickly as a rookie, and still have the steady veteran presence of Levi Wallace.
King only helps the room — immensely. But of course, if one of those guys goes down or even struggles for a stretch, the room could be in some trouble overall, especially in an AFC North with some high-end receiving talent.
If Pickett struggles in Year Two, that could be the downfall of the Steelers. Last season after being inserted into the starting lineup, the Steelers really struggled offensively, especially with turnovers from Pickett. Obviously that changed in the second half of the season as the Steelers went 7-2 down the stretch, but if Pickett regresses in 2023, Pittsburgh’s offense could struggle quite a bit, leading to some sloppy football from the Steelers.
All that said, the floor should be 9-8, period. Pittsburgh showed last season with an average roster what it could do under Tomlin, and that’s get to 9-8. They’re not going to have a losing season anytime soon under Tomlin. They’re going to scratch, claw and fight and find a way to 9-8 if things fall apart.
Don’t bet on that happening (falling apart) though in 2023 with the Steelers.
