ESPN’s Bill Barnwell took a look this morning at how each of the 32 NFL teams could potentially win the Super Bowl, and while Barnwell has been down on the Steelers this offseason, he opined that a second-year leap out of Kenny Pickett would be the key to the organization winning a seventh Lombardi Trophy.
“Pickett’s development over the second half of the season was impressive, and even if his interception rate doesn’t stick, the Steelers valued him as a potential franchise passer in Round 1 of last year’s draft for a reason,” Barnwell wrote. “If he makes the same second-year leap as Carson Wentz made for the Eagles in 2017, you know how that ended for Philly.”
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Steelers have a 34 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, putting them at No. 20 in the league at that metric. Barnwell had a whole host of reasons for why the Steelers will regress this season, but apparently, all it takes for them to win the Super Bowl is Pickett taking a major second-year leap.
It would have to be a big leap, as Wentz was an MVP-caliber player in 2017 before going down with a torn ACL, though Nick Foles helped lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots. I don’t think anyone is expecting a Super Bowl out of Pittsburgh in 2023, but a playoff appearance and playoff win should be a reasonable expectation.
This team is as complete and deep as it’s been in years, with a true slot receiver in Allen Robinson II, an improved offensive line anchored by Isaac Seumalo and an always-stout defense led by Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But Barnwell is right that it’s all going to come down to Pickett.
A whole host of other things go into winning the Super Bowl, so that’s why Pickett taking a leap isn’t solely going to get it done. The Steelers need to stay healthy, the defense needs to produce, and the line needs to live up to expectations. But they can’t do it without Pickett taking a leap. All of the above has to happen in conjunction with Pickett proving he’ll be better than he was as a rookie.
He looked good in the second half of last season, limiting his turnovers and showing off his clutch gene. He looked fantastic in the preseason. Now, he’s got to carry that over to the regular season. If the Steelers have any hope at all of winning the Super Bowl, Pickett needs to ascend to a top-10 type of quarterback.
It’s going to be a fun season to watch. I don’t have Super Bowl expectations, but I’d be happy to be surprised. I think Pickett will be better, and while I’m not sure he’s quite at the caliber to lead the Steelers to a Super Bowl, he’s a gamer with a winning mentality.
With the team around him, a lot can happen and maybe the Steelers can surprise some people this year. We’ll get a clearer idea of how the Steelers compare with the NFL elites when they take on the San Francisco 49ers to open up the season on Sunday.
