The 2023 NFL season has taken off, so it’s time to get an initial lay of the land in terms of a favorite stat here on Steelers Depot: Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A), which is (Passing Yards – Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) – (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked). Taking the offensive (OANY/A) and defensive (DANY/A) results, we get a differential.
To review the importance of the stat, only one Super Bowl Winner since 2000 has had a negative differential, and no team has had a DANY/A of six or above. It is only one week, but it’s always fun to see how teams come out of the gates, and track throughout the season. Here’s a link to the full 2022 season results.
Now for Week One of the 2023 season:
Right away we see the Steelers were well below average on both sides of the ball to open the year, as expected, following the blowout loss to the 49ers, who ranked fourth in differential. Pittsburgh had painful numbers, starting with a 2.5 OANY/A that ranked 27th, and a 7.6 DANY/A that ranked 29th. The offense had 232 passing yards on 46 attempts, five sacks for a loss of 34 yards, one passing touchdown, and two interceptions. The defense allowed 203 passing yards on 29 attempts, recorded three sacks (all from edge rusher T.J. Watt) for a loss of 17 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
The initial ANY/A results for Pittsburgh in 2023 are a far cry from ideal and have to improve quickly for the Steelers to return to the playoffs this year. The season is a marathon, not a race, but the Steelers have their work cut out for them to get to the ideal DANY/A below six. I agree with Dave Bryan’s OANY/A of 6.5, which he discussed recently, considering all but one Super Bowl winner since 2015 has achieved this.
Here’s to hoping we see this against the Cleveland Browns in Week Two. They fared well in the opener, an impressive 24-3 win against the Bengals. The score emphasizes an impressive defensive performance, with a 2.0 DANY/A that ranked fourth best in Week One. This included limiting Joe Burrow to 82 passing yards on 32 attempts, two sacks, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. Their 3.7 OANY/A tied for 23rd, including 154 passing yards on 29 attempts, two sacks allowed, with a touchdown and interception. I know it’s just one game but seeing the rest of the AFC North above average in DANY/A and below it on offense will be interesting to monitor moving forward.
The Dolphins posted the strongest OANY/A at a whopping 10.7, with Green Bay a tick behind them at 10.6 and with the strongest differential in Week One. Dallas put on a clinic on defense in a 40-0 blowout of the Giants, posting an incredible -0.7 DANY/A and the second-best differential in opening week. Seven teams landed above the mean in both data points: the Packers, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Rams, Jaguars, and Patriots. Pittsburgh plays Los Angeles, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and New England all after the Week Six bye.
Here’s a table view of the data to close, ranking the teams by ANY/A differential along with the game outcome:
Pittsburgh ranked 29th in differential with a rough -5.1 differential. Another huge takeaway is the outcome of the games, with the top 12 teams in differential all winning, and the bottom 13 losing. Also, only one team with a negative differential won its game, a 2022 Super Bowl participant in the Eagles. Hopefully the season opener was the wakeup call Pittsburgh needed, and we see the Steelers move up these ranks in the coming weeks.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
