The 2023 football season is here, and for the second season now, I will be charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted balls at the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett played encouragingly well to open his Year Two campaign, going 6-of-7 for 70 yards, with 39 completed air yards, and leading a masterful opening scoring drive. Pickett’s accuracy is something we’ve grown accustomed to, and that came in spades, including throws on the move. Improved zip on the ball was also noticeable and very exciting to see. He converted both third-down opportunities, with one of them being a laser over the middle to wide receiver George Pickens, who shook a defender for an explosive 22 YAC, for an exhilarating 33-yard touchdown. Pickett was hit on his lone incompletion (allowed by Chukwuma Okorafor), doing well to get rid of it and avoid a sack. The starting offense checking off so many of the goals of the passing game from last season right out of the gate is fantastic. Hopefully there’s more of that to come.
Mitch Trubisky played limited snaps as well, going 1-of-4 for 10 yards. He pushed the ball down the field more (51 total air yards), particularly on an underthrow that was intercepted after a combat-catch situation that wide receiver Cody White unfortunately couldn’t come down with. Another one of Trubisky’s incompletions was a miscommunication with wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, who ran a shorter route with the pass sailing over him, and one of his passes was removed (batted at the line of scrimmage). His one completion was a nice throw and route by tight end Connor Heyward, who had a solid game, getting open over the middle at 7 air yards, adding 3 in YAC on a third-and-four conversion.
Mason Rudolph had a nice game overall, going 12-of-15 for 132 yards. Ninety-three were completed air yards, for a strong 70.5 percent. This highlights some big plays he made, including two explosive plays, and highlighted by a TRIPLE explosive 67-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin, taking a hit on the throw (allowed by running back Greg Bell) and rainbowing it 43 air yards, along with 24 in YAC. Refreshing to type after the 2022 season, and — knock on wood — this trends positively into the regular season. He did have a nice scramble for 15 yards, just enough for a first down, and one of his five incompletions was removed (spike). On the downside, Rudolph’s accuracy was up and down, with one example an underthrow to Austin, who was wide open on an out route on his first attempt. Two sacks as well and I noted him antsy on one looking to run. Had he kept his eyes downfield with more poise, tight end Darnell Washington was open over the middle.
Tanner Morgan closed the game and struggled overall, going 5-of-8 for 36 yards, with 23 completed air yards. One of his incompletions was an interception, thrown behind and right to the defender. Another was a removed batted pass. The other was not on him, going off wide receiver Hakeem Butler’s hands. All five of his third-down opportunities failed, including the interception, along with a sack, botched exchange, and throwaway (removed). He is the fourth stringer but definitely not ideal.
Let’s look at a simple view of all 27 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for the game:
The most common pass distance of the game was 1 yard, with each being running back targets that were unsuccessful, and 33.3 percent of passes were in the 0-5 air-yard range. That tied for the largest percentage and is the most common distance for most NFL teams. One came on the first play of the game, a nice play where wide receiver Diontae Johnson got open at 4 air yards, and encouragingly equaled that in YAC. The following play was tight end Pat Freiermuth’s lone catch, a reception over the middle to move the chains. Morgan had two such plays for completions. Both were on the move, including a play-action rollout where he found tight end Rodney Williams open on the leak out at 3 air yards and added 8 in YAC for the first down.
Ten to 15 air yards tied for the most common pass distance (33.3 percent). This was an area where Pickett was particularly effective, including the touchdown. Another was a great poise play, calmly sliding to the right (Okorafor pressure), hitting Johnson on the comeback route with nice zip and accuracy for a good catch along the sideline. Both of these plays came on third down as well. Pickett also provided one from play-action, rolling left and waiting for Johnson to come open on the crosser, displaying his accuracy on the move. Very encouraging in terms of distance and success, compared to primarily throwing at 5 yards or less in 2022, along with the connection and YAC in this range.
Almost 26 percent (25.9) of passes were 5-10 air yards. One was an accurate Rudolph throw, connecting on a nice route from Olszewski at 10 air yards, and a 14-yard gain. He also found Washington over the middle, and particularly enjoyed his YAC of 5 that moved the chains. Two were on less-than-ideal plays from White, the 10-yard in route before halftime, trying to get out of bounds (unsuccessfully) along with -3 in YAC, and a blatant focus drop on a wide-open target.
Just over 11 percent (11.1) were explosive plays, the aforementioned Rudolph touchdown being the highlight. The other two were, ironically, at 30 air yards each, but the attempts were incomplete from Trubisky (interception) and Rudolph (missed deep shot to Austin).
Over seven percent (7.4) were 15-20 yards, on two plays. The first was a pretty play from Rudolph to Heyward at 19 air yards, along with 5 in YAC for the third explosive pass play of the game. The other was Morgan’s longest pass at 15 air yards. He was antsy in the pocket but made a good late decision to find and hit Butler over the middle for his best play of the game.
Just one of the charted passes was behind the line (3.7 percent), the least common pass distance of the game. This was on RB Najee Harris’ lone target, catching the quick swing pass 5 yards behind the line, but a sea of Bucs dropped him for a loss of 1. Small sample size, but it will be interesting to see how this trends, considering the behind the line rate in 2022 ended at 13.6 percent.
Here is the dot chart for the charted throws this game:
The chart highlights a few things right away. Individually, all of Pickett’s throws were less than 15 air yards, and really want to see how he looks on the deep ball soon. All three of Rudolph’s incompletions were to the left outside the numbers, and four of Morgan’s five completions were less than 5 yards. In totality, 37 percent of throws were between the numbers, which is similar to what we saw last season (38.6 percent), compared to 48.1 outside the numbers (52.4 percent in 2022). The longest air yardage over the middle was 15 yards, and the quarterbacks went for a 90 percent completion rate between the numbers (Morgan only incompletion), compared to 61.5 percent outside the numbers. Speaking of completion rates, here are the total numbers by distance: 100 percent behind the line (1-of-1), 88.9 percent 0-5 yards (8-of-9), 71.4 percent 5-10 yards (5-of-7), 66.7 percent 10-15 yards (6-of-9), 100 percent 15-20 yards (2-of-2), and 33.3 percent on explosives (1-of-3). Of course, small sample size, and playing with the lead throughout important context, but interested to track it and see how all this unfolds in 2023.
Now for heat maps, starting with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
First note, Trubisky was not included with only one completion (multiple obviously needed). Morgan, oof. We also see where Pickett did his damage, less than 15 air yards similar to last year. It will be interesting to see how that progresses in 2023, no doubt needing more explosive plays this season. We see the aforementioned Rudolph touchdown far and away the farthest completion.
Many enjoyable things from Pickett and Rudolph in particular in the opener. Zooming in on Pickett, he and the starting offense gave us much to be optimistic about. The main thing we did not see that I am hoping for is pushing the ball down the field, one of the few boxes he and the starting offense did not check in the otherwise stellar debut. I know, it’s just one game and the preseason, but if Pickett and the offense can showcase improvement there as well, look out. I can’t wait to see how it progresses through the preseason, and in 2023.
What are your thoughts on the quarterback performances in the preseason opener? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
