Viewed through the prism of basic numbers and Kenny Pickett’s rookie season doesn’t look like anything to write home about. Seven touchdowns, nine interceptions, with a 63-percent completion rate that makes you shrug your shoulders and go, “This was the first quarterback drafted?”
Going beyond the box score, Pickett’s play produced hope. The Pittsburgh Steelers turned their season around, going 7-2 down the stretch, with Pickett leading back-to-back game-winning drives to beat the Las Vegas Raiders and Baltimore Ravens. Entering his second year, Pickett is the team’s clear starter. If his numbers can reflect improved play, Pittsburgh will strongly contend for the postseason.
In a series of “bold predictions” from Pro Football Focus Thursday, author Sam Monson writes that Pickett will triple his touchdown passes in 2023.
“Kenny Pickett was quietly very impressive as a rookie, which didn’t get reflected in his box-score stats. Pickett threw only seven touchdowns in 13 games, but he had 18 big-time throws, which ranked 16th in the league despite fewer games than other passers.
Pickett showed excellent poise, and the team improved his supporting cast in the offseason with additions along the offensive line and to the receiving corps, plus injured players coming back. Fourteen quarterbacks threw for more than 20 touchdowns last season, so Pickett tripling his rookie total is very attainable.”
As PFF has referenced several times in the offseason, the Steelers’ quarterbacks graded far better than the team’s offensive output. Pickett earned high marks for making tough throws, like his absolute dime to Steven Sims on the game-winning drive against the Ravens to keep Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes alive. It’s one of the best plays you’ll see by any quarterback all season.
Monson also notes the improvement the Steelers’ offense has made since the 2022 season ended. They’re an older and more experienced group who worked through the growing pains of being the NFL’s youngest unit a year ago. And they stocked the shelves with talent this offseason, signing LG Isaac Seumalo, trading for WR Allen Robinson II, and drafting TE Darnell Washington in addition to getting speedster WR Calvin Austin III on the field after missing his rookie year with a foot injury.
Tripling Pickett’s touchdown passes would give him 21 for the 2023 season. Confident in his second year, it’s a realistic goal for a starting quarterback over 17 games. Odds are, Pickett will throw for his first multi-touchdown game and a couple of such performances will easily get him to the 20-mark for the year.
If Pickett can hit blackjack and throw for 21 touchdowns, he’ll be the first Steelers quarterback not named Ben Roethlisberger to do so since Kordell Stewart in 1997. If Pickett can reach 22 passing scores, he’ll be the first non-Roethlisberger quarterback to achieve that feat since Terry Bradshaw in 1981.
Two other bold Steelers predictions on that list include the Steelers getting back to the playoffs, which doesn’t seem like a bold stretch, and the offensive line being a top-10 unit by year’s end, which would go a long way to Pickett hitting his 21-touchdown mark.
