In recent weeks Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has received a lot of criticism, with even some going as far as to say Jaylen Warren should be seeing more snaps over him. Despite this criticism of Harris, he is in the best position of his career to put up elite numbers, and he will.
Although Harris started the 2022 season off poorly, after the bye week he played the best football of his career as he rushed for 673 yards and six touchdowns in the final nine games of the season. In total, Harris finished his 2022 season with 1,034 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, providing most of his production in the second half of the season after he was fully healed from a foot injury.
To project how Harris might look this upcoming season we should look at what he was averaging in the final nine games of the season when also the offensive line looked much better. In addition, the Steelers improved their offensive line this offseason with the free agent signing of guard Isaac Seumalo and the drafting of left tackle Broderick Jones (if he wins the starting job).
In Harris’ final nine games, he averaged 74.8 yards per game and ran at a clip of 4.0 yards per carry. If we stretch those numbers out to a whole season those would both be career highs for Harris, as his current career high in rushing yards per game is 70.6 (2021) and in yards per carry 3.9 (2021). In addition, an average of 74.8 yards per game would have been sixth-best in the NFL last season, but due to his poor start, he finished with an average yards per game of 60.8, which was 20th. We know Harris is not going to be an explosive runner who averages 4.5 yards per carry, but he is absolutely capable of being a bell cow who can slowly but surely power an offense.
Also working in Harris’ favor for having a career year is that the offensive plan looks to be catered towards “three yards and a cloud of dust” football. This offseason the Steelers beefed up their offensive line and even added the best blocking tight end in college football, Darnell Washington, via the draft. The Steelers don’t want to put too much on the plate of their young quarterback Kenny Pickett and are committed to running the football this season. Now, Harris has the best offensive line in his young career, which should help him set career highs.
Even with his partner, Jaylen Warren, likely receiving an increase in snaps this upcoming season Harris will likely still see around 20 rushes a game. If Harris averages 20 carries at an even four yards per carry he will average 80 yards per game, next which would be a career high. In fact, I believe the ability the Steelers have to go to Warren at times will help Harris as he will be fresh as the game goes along.
If Harris does average 80 yards per game, he would finish the season with a career-high of 1,360 rushing yards. Seeing that once the Steelers shifted their philosophy to being super run-heavy down the 2022 stretch and Harris’ scoring increased it wouldn’t surprise me if he broke 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Both rushing touchdowns and rushing yards would be career highs if he manages to hit those numbers.
Harris received a lot of flak for how he started the year last season, but he really proved to be a good running back by year’s end. Given the Steelers’ philosophy and the way they beefed up their offensive line, as long as Harris stays healthy he should have a career year this season.
