One more series before we get into training camp and speed ahead towards the Pittsburgh Steelers’ regular season. A numbers to note campaign, focusing on one specific number we want to see the Steelers change in 2023. Some may be individual, some unit, and some team. Next up in the series:
NUMBERS TO NOTE: Najee Harris’ YPC (3.9 + 3.8)
It’s not entirely Harris’ fault but his yards per carry over his first two years in the league have been underwhelming to say the least. In 2021, he finished second in rushing attempts but 34th among running backs in yards per carry with 3.9. In 2022, he ended the year fifth in carries but 35th among running backs at 3.8 yards per carry.
Of course, there’s a lot of reasons for that. As a rookie, the Steelers’ offensive line was a mess being Macgyver’d together with shoestrings and paperclips. In 2022, a foot injury and steel plate put in the toe of his cleat hampered him and Harris didn’t look healthy until after the bye week. And it’s worth noting from Week 10 and on, his yards per carry bumped to 4.0. Still, that’s an average number by most running backs’ standards.
Coming into 2023, 4.0 is the minimum number Harris should hit. Again, that’s not all within his control and he’s not a big-play kind of guy, just three career carries of 25+ yards on 579 total attempts. Averages get boosted when a 50+ yard gain can skew the data.
Here’s more data. Harris is the sixth running back in NFL history with 250+ carries with a sub 4.0 YPC in each of his first two NFL years. The five others on the list run the spectrum from successful players to forgotten names. There’s Curtis Martin and Matt Forte. There’s also Eric Rhett and Karim Abdul-Jabbar (yes, that’s a football player’s name and yes, there was a lawsuit over it). Only Abdul-Jabbar and Willie McGahee have done it in each of their first three years.
Harris’ production matters all the more because of the Steelers’ model. I’m sure you’ve noticed but they’re not building a pass-happy team. It’s ground-and-pound. It’s ball control. It’s keeping the opposing quarterback off the field. To do that, Pittsburgh will have to stay on schedule and extend drives with the running game. If there’s a time for Harris to have a career-year, with his 5th-year option looming, it’s 2023. A career-year can be defined in many ways, not just one number, but his average has to get out of the 3’s. That’s a great place to start.
