During an appearance on The Fan Hotline with Dorin Dickerson and Adam Crowley on The Fan Morning Show on 93.7 The Fan, Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus talked about the difficulty of the AFC North and how the Steelers are only going to win if Kenny Pickett is a “dog.”
“If they’re going to be successful this year, Kenny has to produce at a pretty high level,” Spielberger said. “Kenny would have to throw for 4,300, 4,500 yards, be extremely efficient, not turn the football over. It’s just such a tough division, so if they do, it’s because Kenny is a dog.”
PFF also had the Steelers’ roster ranked the 12th-best in the NFL, and Spielberger said the upside is there for it to be better.
“The potential for growth is higher on this roster than across the NFL. So 12th right now with massive upside potential is a good place to be.”
The AFC North is always a bloodbath, and that’s going to be no different in 2023. With three established quarterbacks in Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, Pickett is the worst quarterback in the division on paper. He’s not going to surpass Burrow, and Jackson’s unique skill set plays into the Ravens offense so it’s hard to do a one-to-one comparison given the differences in how the Steelers and Ravens play on offense.
But Watson struggled last season, and if Pickett takes a leap in his sophomore campaign it’s certainly possible he surpasses Watson in the division quarterback rankings. Pittsburgh’s defense is arguably the best in the division as well, so it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility the Steelers can win the division.
They split every game against their divisional opponents last year, and probably would’ve beaten Baltimore twice if Pickett wasn’t hurt during the first matchup. Granted, Baltimore didn’t have Jackson in either matchup, although Pittsburgh has historically had success against the former MVP.
The division race is going to come down to how well each team plays against each other. If the Steelers can win five divisional games this year, I think they’ll be in a pretty good spot. Anything can happen in divisional matchups, so while I think it’s pretty unlikely they sweep either the Ravens or the Bengals, I could see a sweep against Cleveland and maybe they steal a game against the Ravens or Bengals and take two from one of them.
It’s not going to be easy, but Spielberger is right that the play of Pickett will be a major factor in Pittsburgh’s divisional success. While they might be more of a run-heavy team, Pickett has to show he can push the ball downfield and make more plays than he did last season. He’s a gamer and has shown he’s clutch, so I’m not too concerned about Pickett elevating his play, but it’s still going to be an uphill battle for the Steelers to win the division.
But I do think the division is more wide open than it’s been in the past. I still think the Steelers should be a playoff team even if it’s as a wild card, and I’m excited to see how they look when the season gets underway in less than two months.
